China continues its recovery, carriers getting ready for rebound

The coronavirus outbreak continues to be profoundly disruptive to the global supply chain, especially for importers heavily reliant on Chinese manufacturing.

For the latest developments and expert advice on how to manage freight during the crisis, visit the Freightos.com marketplace updates page. A recent analysis on how this is impacting small business importers and the trend of supplier diversification is available here.
Here are the latest China-US container rates, which are heavily impacted by production’s slow recovery:
    •    China-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Daily) fell by 1% since last week to $1323/FEU. Rates are 10% behind last year’s prices for this week.
    •    China-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Daily)  are unchanged at $2541/FEU. This rate trails last year’s by 2%.
Analysis
Following last week’s reports that manufacturing is returning closer to full capacity, there were many additional indications this week of Chinese manufacturing returning to life. Even the city of Wuhan is taking initial steps back to normal. 
One interesting sign that production is picking up is the spike in intra-Asia air cargo rates – indicating that Chinese factories are restocking the components they need to manufacture the backlog of orders caused by the shutdown.
With production picking up and passenger flights and their cargo space still severely limited, air cargo rates out of China to Europe and North America have also started to climb. 
Ocean freight rates out of China went largely unchanged this week at $1,323 for Transpacific 40’ containers to the US west coast, which is still 7% lower than the same time last year . But as production recovers, a spike in prices becomes more likely – and carriers are getting ready for this rebound. This week's sharp drop in blank sailings is a good indication of this preparation.
Carriers are also taking steps to make sure empty containers are back where they need to be. Though backhaul rates for US-China have been stable, FBX rates for North Europe-Asia have jumped 48% in the last two weeks, as exporters compete to get their shipments on limited numbers of ships.
These developments show carriers are getting ready for a return of demand in the near future and a possible surge in late April when late orders meant for summer could overlap with the back-to-school push.
But as the coronavirus has now spread to other countries including the US, new disruptions like the US ban on inbound flights from the EU are likely. And the industry not only has to worry about the supply of goods coming out of China but also about possible drops in the demand for those  goods in the countries just starting to cope with the epidemic.