California’s export surge in February: May be the last but of positive trade news for quite some time

The value of California’s export trade expanded by a robust 7.3% on an annual basis, according to data released today by the U.S. Census. This monthly data is lagged and today's data release reflects the month of February - prior to much of the Trump administration's tariff activity.

That said...

“This may be the last bit of positive trade news we will be reporting for quite a while,” said Jock O’Connell, Beacon Economics’ International Trade Advisor. “There can be no doubt that President Trump’s new tariffs will severely limit the ability of California businesses to sell their products abroad.” The state's agricultural exports may be the hardest hit.

For reasons that remain unclear, President Trump continues to insist that his tariffs will result in a massive transfer of capital from other countries that will enrich the U.S. Treasury, a position disputed by nearly all economists as well as major business organizations like the National Retail Federation. Virtually all economists, editorialists, and pundits outside of the president’s immediate circle of advisers recognize that the estimated $6 trillion in revenue the tariffs are projected to generate will ultimately be paid by American businesses and consumers.

As the editorial board of the Wall Street Journal opined earlier this week, this would amount to the largest tax hike in U.S. history.

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