Although FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index improved in March; outlook looks close to neutral

FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index for March improved to a reading of 1.2 from -1.4 in February. Stable diesel prices and slightly more favorable rates resulted in a better market for shippers during March, but conditions look to deteriorate somewhat in the coming months.

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, commented, “The SCI returned to mildly positive territory in March after February’s negative reading that mostly was due to fuel costs. The next couple of months still look favorable for shippers, but we expect the index to trend toward more neutral and slightly negative readings by the second half of this year due to modestly stronger capacity utilization and less favorable rates. Even so, we expect any weakness in shippers’ market conditions over the next couple of years to be far milder than what they had encountered from late 2020 through the middle of 2022.”

The May FTR’s Shippers Update, published May 5 provides a detailed analysis of the factors affecting the March Shippers Conditions Index and provides the forecast for this index through March 2025. Additional commentary in the May issue analyzes recent revisions in the Census Bureau’s estimates of retail inventories.

The Shippers Conditions Index tracks the changes representing four major conditions in the U.S. full-load freight market. These conditions are: freight demand, freight rates, fleet capacity, and fuel price. The individual metrics are combined into a single index that tracks the market conditions that influence the shippers’ freight transport environment. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. A negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. The index tells you the industry’s health at a glance.