US import volumes may be headed for a prolonged slump

Mixed signals on US tariffs and trade have resulted in many U.S. importers and trading partners giving up on the United States for the immediate future, according to Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime.

In an interview with AJOT at the S&P Global Trans Pacific Maritime (TPM) conference in Long Beach last week, Jensen was pessimistic about US trade prospects, which will have an impact on US port volumes:
“We've gotten to a point where, at least that is what I see outside of the US, basically nobody cares anymore. I mean, this (Trump) administration changes trade rules more frequently than other people change their underwear, and that is why basically we have gotten to the point where nobody cares. They do not assume there is any stability to be found. There is no predictability, which means that they are just not making any long-term decisions. That is the only rational approach, and that is what I see.”

Jensen says the Trump administration’s tariff policies have created a crisis of confidence: “If you suddenly have this much tariff on China and this much on Vietnam and this one in Cambodia, then I'm going to change my supply chain set up. I might source from Vietnam instead of Cambodia, or whatever is rational. That was the first approach because that makes sense. You may not like the tariffs, but then you will look at the landscape and say, if the landscape is now this, I am going to adapt to the landscape. But very quickly over the last year, we then learned this landscape is quicksand. It changes day to day unpredictably. So, there is no foundation for building a long-term plan.”

The impact of this downturn will impact US imports: “The same thing goes for you as importers. There is no way you can make a meaningful medium or long-term supply chain plan (investment), because no matter what assumptions you put in, they are likely to change anyhow. It means for foreign investors going in and saying, we are going to build manufacturing capabilities in the U.S.,  that is typically a 10- year investment horizon. Very few are seriously actually contemplating that because there is no certainty over what the trade situation will be. Not just in 10 years, but in 10 days from now. So, when I say nobody cares anymore, it's because everybody assumes this no matter what comes from the government, this will change anyhow.”

NRF Warning

Jensen’s conclusions are echoed by the National Retail Federation (NRF), which warned that US containerized imports are expected to remain below last year’s levels through the first half of 2026 as tariff uncertainty continues to weigh on trade flows, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the NRF and Hackett Associates.

The report said that the pessimistic outlook comes as global supply chains navigate a rapidly shifting trade policy landscape, “following a recent U.S. Supreme Court decision striking down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), alongside new duties introduced by the Trump administration and rising geopolitical risks tied to the conflict involving Iran.”

“The Supreme Court has struck down IEEPA tariffs, but other tariffs have already been announced, and others will be coming, so uncertainty continues for retailers,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “The need for clear and predictable trade policy remains, and long-term planning continues to be difficult for merchants and other businesses.”

According to the NRF report, US ports handled 2.08 million TEU in January, an increase of 3.8% from December but a decline of 6.4% compared to the same month last year.

Ports have not yet released February figures, “but Global Port Tracker projects volumes of 2.01 million TEU, down 1.3% year over year. Imports are forecast to fall more sharply in the coming months, with March projected at 1.91 million TEU, a decline of 11.2% from the same month in 2025, followed by 2.03 million TEU in April, down 8.1% year over year.”

Responses From Poll of Supply Chain Execs

Validating this, Jensen has taken a poll of supply chain executives, primarily in the United States: “In the last couple of months, every time I had a chance and when I ask people, especially when I'm here in the States, let me ask you the question: ‘If Mr. Trump came out today and said, I promise now it's a firm basis, we will not change anything in our tariff and trade regulations, would you trust it?’ The answer is ‘Absolutely not.’

The second question Jensen has asked is: “Next question then becomes, how much time needs to elapse before you are now confident that the (trade) environment is stable? Their answer to that question is 2028.”