Trump-China soybean deal may not increase this season’s US soybean exports

There may be no increase in U.S. soybean exports for this marketing year (2025-2026) despite the recently announced China soybean deal negotiated by President Trump. The reason is: increased exports to China “could be offset by reductions to other markets where the US no longer holds a large price discount compared to other exporters,” according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA)

USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates published November 14^th, 2025, stated: “While US soybean exports are expected to rise to China for the rest of the marketing year, these higher shipments could be offset by reductions to other markets where the US no longer holds a large price discount compared to other exporters.”

The report went on to say: “US soybean exports are forecast at 1.64 billion bushels, down 50 million from the previous forecast due to lower supplies and higher exports by Brazil and Argentina. In September, Argentina temporarily reduced export taxes leading to an influx of export registrations during the peak US export season. Further, since the last report, the US entered a trade deal with China, which led to higher US prices and narrowed the price spread between US and other major exporters.”

As to global exports, USDA said: “Global soybean exports for 2025/26 are increased 0.2 million tons to 188.0 million. Exports are raised 0.5 million tons for Brazil and 2.3 million for Argentina, in line with increases in the previous marketing year and large export registrations to date; mostly offsetting are lower shipments for the United States and Ukraine ...”

On October 30^th, the American Soybean Association (ASA) said it “appreciates President Trump and his administration for prioritizing America’s farmers in today’s announcement regarding US–China trade. After months of stalled purchases and uncertainty, this is a very positive development for soybean farmers who rely on open markets.”

“Today’s announcement is great news for American agriculture, and soybean farmers are extremely grateful to President Trump for making soybeans a priority in negotiations with China,” said Caleb Ragland, ASA President and soybean farmer from Magnolia, Kentucky. “This is a meaningful step forward to reestablishing a stable, long-term trading relationship that delivers results for farm families and future generations.”

ASA said that while details are still emerging and to be confirmed, “we understand that today’s announcement includes minimum purchase commitments of 12 million metric tons of US soybeans for the remainder of this marketing year and a minimum of 25 million metric tons annually through 2028.”

ASA said it “is encouraged that these commitments are framed as minimums and looks forward to continued growth in soybean purchases beyond these levels. China has historically purchased 25 to 30 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in recent years, and today’s commitments lay a strong foundation to return to those traditional volumes over the coming marketing years.”