Suspension of de minimis in EU: what awaits China-Europe e-commerce trade?

When the US suspended its de minimis exemption for goods under $800 in August 2025, it led to an immediate and significant decline in cross-border e-commerce traffic.

It also sparked a shift in freighter capacity from the transpacific to the China-Europe trade lane as Chinese online marketplaces, such as Temu and Shein, targeted increasing business with European consumers.

From the start of next month, the European Union (EU) will, in turn, suspend its de minimis rule, which currently applies to parcels worth less than €150 (approximately $175) and replace it with a flat-rate tax of €3 per item from non-EU countries. Secondly, a processing fee of €2 is set to be added later in the year, probably in November.

‘Reform Ensures Fairness for All Businesses’

The de minimis duty-free rule was originally introduced to avoid disproportionate administrative burdens for customs authorities, businesses, and private individuals, the EU’s Taxation and Customs Union authority explained.

However, due to the digitalization of customs procedures, electronic data are nowadays available for all imported goods, so the exemption is now no longer justified.

Moreover, the exemption does not reflect the reality of the market any longer. In 2025 alone, almost 5.9 billion of such low-value items were directly shipped from third countries to consumers in the EU, without paying customs duties. This has created unfair competition that traditional retailers cannot compete with, it added.

"This reform ensures fairness for all businesses operating within the EU market while keeping customs procedures simple for consumers,” noted Maroš Šefčovič, the EU’s Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security.

“By introducing a small duty and stronger product traceability, we are closing loopholes that allowed unsafe and non-compliant goods to enter our market too easily. This is a key step in the modernization of our Customs Union and towards a fully digital, agile and coordinated EU customs system fit for the challenges of our times.”

McKinsey Study

In a research paper at the end of last year; ‘De minimis disrupted: Managing shifts in duty exemptions’, management consultants McKinsey highlighted that when the U.S. government eliminated the exemption for goods from mainland China and Hong Kong in May 2025, the daily volume of imports exempt from de minimis dropped by more than 85%

Following the subsequent removal of de minimis exemptions for all exporters in August 2025, total postal shipments to the US declined by 80% as postal services in several European countries temporarily suspended shipments due to confusion about the changes.

Despite these disruptions, trade volumes quickly recovered as exporters adapted, McKinsey went to observe.

Large Chinese e-commerce marketplaces like Temu and Shein—which have been disproportionately affected by the exemption changes—quickly adjusted their logistics strategies. Temu, for example, moved inventory to warehouses closer to end customers and has built regional networks for order fulfilment.

Volume Decline

As to the scale of decline in e-commerce volumes on the China-U.S. trade lane since de minimis was removed, one indication comes from data produced by freight transportation strategy and research firm, Trade and Transport Group.

In a Linkedin post, its managing director, Frederic Horst, noted: “For the last year, general air cargo imports have filled the gap left by the end of the US de minimis exemption. From 2022 to 2024 e-commerce was the only driver of transpacific air cargo volumes and up to early-2025 it was the main driver. That has changed. In 2025 Asian imports by air were up 21.5% and growth in the first part of this year has been even stronger.”

The data draws the distinction between air traffic, which denotes “everything that was flown” and air trade- “import consignments worth more than $2000, which by definition excludes most cross-border e-commerce traffic.”

Front-Loading of Shipments?

Feedback from logistics players suggests that the EU’s suspension of the €150 de minimis threshold will lead to a reconfiguration of the cross-border e-commerce trade. However, it will nevertheless continue to be a major growth driver in the air freight sector.

The expectation is for some front-loading of shipments ahead of July 1 before a possible temporary slowdown in demand in the e-commerce vertical.

The response in the longer term from stakeholders in the vertical could be a reshaping of their supply chains with logistics provision more focused o consolidation, bonded warehousing and regional distribution capabilities within Europe.

The DHL Group, for one, is cautious on how things might play out. “It remains too early to assess the impact of the upcoming EU rules as they have not yet taken effect,” a spokesperson for the German logistics giant told the AJOT.

“We have seen some volume increases on major lanes out of Asia into Europe. However, the changes we are currently seeing cannot be clearly attributed to front-loading related to potential regulatory changes, as other factors – such as modal shifts from ocean to air freight driven by geopolitical disruptions – are also influencing demand. We will continue to monitor market developments and assess potential impacts as the situation evolves and more data becomes available.”

What seems clear is that the low-cost shipping model will be put under pressure by the flat-rate tax of €3 per item and processing fee of €2. But there appears to be little support for the view that these fiscal measures will trigger a lasting, significant reduction in e-commerce flows between China and Europe.

However, with the online trade taking up a sizeable chunk of global freighter capacity, a fall-off in volumes could release much-needed maindeck space for deployment elsewhere; namely, the ultra-dynamic hyperscale vertical which sees hardware components used in data centers and data parks heavily traded across borders.

Slide In Small Parcel Customs Declarations

With the suspension of de minimis in the EU only a couple of weeks away, are there any clues as to what its impact will be on the China-Europe e-commerce trade?

Perhaps something of a pointer comes from France where the authorities brought forward the introduction of the €2 parcel tax to 1 March. By 3 March, customs declarations for small parcels at Paris CDG Airport had fallen 92% as goods were transited through alternative European air hubs – Liège, Schiphol and Frankfurt - which were levy-free and then shipped to France by truck. CDG was estimated to have lost about 50 freighter flights in the first week after the tax was introduced.

Could this be a sign of things to come when all of the bloc's 27 member states impose the small parcel tax and processing fee? A clearer picture will no doubt emerge in the coming weeks and months.