Is US trade at risk from Strait of Hormuz disruption?

While overall US exposure to shipments transiting the Strait of Hormuz — which has been essentially closed due to the US-Iran conflict — is relatively limited, key industries such as energy, fertilizers and aluminum face significantly higher risk due to concentrated dependency, according to a special global shipping report released by Descartes Systems Group.

While we are already seeing impacts of the closure on the US economy, such as rising gas prices, the impact on US trade remains to be seen. Descartes reports that between March 2025 and March 2026, approximately 2.8% (18.5 million metric tons) of total US maritime imports departed via the strait. “While this represents a relatively small share of total US imports, reliance is far more pronounced in specific commodity categories critical to industrial and agricultural supply chains,” the report states.

Fertilizer And Aluminum at Risk

For US importers, the Strait of Hormuz serves as a key transit corridor for commodities moving out of the Middle East — from countries such as Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Kuwait. At the HS2 level, shipments transiting the Strait of Hormuz account for 17.5% of US fertilizer maritime imports, and 20% of US aluminum maritime imports, as well as 5.4% of US mineral fuel maritime imports. These products face the highest disruption risk, according to Descartes.

For fertilizer and aluminum, the UAE is the top source for US maritime importers by metric ton. Qatar is ranked third, Saudi Arabia is ranked sixth for US maritime imports of fertilizer, and Bahrain is ranked fifth for aluminum.

In the Descartes report, the more granular HS4 level shows even greater reliance on Hormuz transit routes for certain critical commodities, including nitrogenous fertilizers at 19.6% of total US maritime imports in this category, mineral or chemical fertilizers at 29.6%, and unwrought aluminum at 39.7%. In the energy sector, petroleum oils represent 8.5% of US maritime imports in this category, with crude petroleum oils at 3.5%.

The Descartes report clarifies that typical maritime transit times to the US range from 30 to 45 days, so the full impact of the closure will likely not be ascertainable until early May. “As more data becomes available, we’ll be in a better position to assess both the scale of disruption and whether broader trade flows are being impacted beyond the strait itself,” explains Jackson Wood, Director of Industry Strategy, Global Trade Intelligence for Descartes.

It is also important to note that the Descartes analysis only includes US maritime imports — it does not capture land-based trade such as shipments by rail or truck from Canada. Consequently, the percentages provided by the report may not reflect the exact share of total US imports that move through the Strait of Hormuz — particularly for aluminum, a product with significant overland imports.

US Trade Disruption

“While the overall share of US imports affected by the Strait of Hormuz disruption is relatively small, the concentration of risk in critical commodities presents meaningful challenges for supply chain resilience,” Wood warns. “Even a temporary closure of the strait can have a meaningful impact, given its role as a key transit point for critical commodities.”

Wood explains that short-term disruptions can delay shipments, tighten supply, and create immediate price volatility — especially for energy and essential manufacturing inputs. If the disruption persists, these effects could become more pronounced, potentially leading to sustained price increases and more significant supply chain adjustments.

“But even in the near term, we could see ripple effects similar to the suspected frontloading behavior observed in 2025, as importers react to uncertainty by accelerating shipments,” Wood adds. “In either case, the strait’s importance to global trade means that even brief interruptions can create noticeable stress on US trade flows.”

Recommended Actions

“While ongoing geopolitical developments add uncertainty to planning efforts, importers in high-exposure sectors may need to reassess sourcing strategies and explore alternative trade lanes to mitigate disruption risk,” says Wood.

For companies relying on at-risk product categories, Wood recommends focusing on near-term resilience and flexibility. This includes increasing visibility into supplier exposure, building buffer inventory where possible, and closely monitoring pricing for key inputs.

“The biggest priority should be evaluating alternative sourcing options and reducing dependence on affected supply chains,” Wood advises. “Companies should use this as a trigger to strengthen diversification and scenario planning to better manage ongoing volatility.”

Wood adds that maritime supply for fertilizers is relatively diversified across a global supplier base, so substitution is feasible. A broader country of origin base gives fertilizer importers more flexibility to shift sourcing, even if pricing and product type vary. Beyond the Strait-reliant countries, importers can consider Trinidad and Tobago for nitrogen, and Israel and Egypt for specialty and phosphate fertilizers. European suppliers like the Netherlands, Belgium, and Finland offer higher-value products, and Mexico is geographically advantageous, but at a higher cost per ton.

For aluminum, alternatives to UAE and Bahrain exist but are more concentrated and come with trade-offs, such as higher costs or different product specifications, Wood observes. China and South Korea are large-volume suppliers, but often at higher per-ton values. India and Argentina can also serve as alternative sources, as well as smaller players such as Brazil and South Africa.

It's anyone's guess when the Strait of Hormuz will resume normal traffic levels, but even if this vital waterway is open tomorrow, that does not mean US importers of these specific commodities will be in the clear. “The problem is unlikely to be fully 'solved' in the near term,” Wood concludes. “While US importers can and will shift to alternative sources and routes, that adjustment process takes time and comes with trade-offs. Even with proactive action, importers will likely face some level of disruption, possibly through higher prices, longer lead times, and limited availability. So, while the situation may be manageable for companies that act early, it’s reasonable to expect friction and short-term impacts rather than a seamless resolution.”