Bolton: Abandoning allies undermines US national security

Report from TPM. The Trump administration’s moves to withdraw support from Ukraine in its war with Russia and not support Taiwan which is facing growing threats from China undermines U.S. national security as nations around the world see the United States as weak and unwilling to support its traditional allies, according to John Bolton, Donald Trump’s former national security advisor.

Bolton was speaking at the Trans Pacific Maritime conference (TPM) on March 3rd taking place in Long Beach, California. The impact to global shipping and freedom of the seas would be lost by a US withdrawal, Bolton said.

Abandoning Ukraine

The most dramatic example of US withdrawal is President Trump’s shift toward supporting Russia and its invasion of Ukraine: “We've got a hot war in Ukraine where the United States has effectively shifted its position from supporting Ukraine to supporting Russia. It's … a great tragedy for the United States and the West as a whole. And the issue is whether this marks the beginning of a much broader retreat of the United States from a strong international position. I think that would be very dangerous, but I think it's a very real possibility. It’s the kind of withdrawal that we haven't really seen since the end of the first World War.”

What is even more disturbing about Trump’s shift is the President’s assertion that Ukraine started the war: “There are weak points everywhere, and they're getting weaker by the day. The effect of that discussion in the Oval Office Friday (between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky which ended in shouting) obviously centered on Ukraine. But as I survey the response around the world, people can't believe that the United States is treating a friend in need, the way we're treating Ukraine. The idea that it could seriously be argued that Ukraine started the war has shocked people. Boris Johnson, the former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, who really led Britain to being one of Europe's major supporters of Ukraine, described that idea that Ukraine started the war as Orwellian. He said, “It's like in the movie ‘Jaws’, blaming the swimmers for attacking the shark. This is just divorced from reality and the continuing threat to NATO I've written about in the Wall Street Journal this morning also represents a threat to American alliances both multilateral and bilateral around the world.”

The Trump administration shift toward Russia on the war In Ukraine is being watched closely in Beijing as it encourages China’s takeover of Taiwan: “I think the Chinese government is watching very closely what happens in Ukraine. If the United States and the West as a whole don't stand against the unprovoked aggression of the Russians in 2022, I think that will be a strong signal to China and leave Taiwan more vulnerable. But Chinese interference goes well beyond Taiwan.”

Threat To East Asia and Taiwan

Bolton said China is also threatening Japan and South Korea while it asserts dominance over the South China Sea threatening countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam: “In recent months, they've been transgressing the maritime domain and airspace of the Japanese home islands. They've also obviously in the past 15 years tried to militarize the South China Sea. They've declared, basically, within the lines that they draw, they've declared the South China Sea is Chinese province, and created a provincial capital. If anybody believes that and acts on it, that means that what used to be international waters in the South China Sea are now part of Chinese territorial waters, which has an enormous potential impact on ships sailing through those waters, carrying enormous commerce to Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan among others.”

In the case of Taiwan, Bolton says, President Trump misrepresents the facts just as he did in Ukraine: “The President said that Taiwan had stolen the American semiconductor chip manufacturing industry. That's not true for what it's worth. And indeed, Taiwan Semiconductor has recently said it's going to increase investment in the United States very substantially in the years ahead.”

Bolton believes China will try to blockade Taiwan to force it to surrender to a Chinese takeover and watch to see what the United States does to come to Taiwan’s aid, if anything:” I don't think the government of China would actually invade Taiwan. It's an island that's covered with economic activity, not just the chip manufacturing, but an incredible concentration of business and commerce. And I don't think that Beijing wants to see what's happened in Ukraine where vast stretches of Ukraine have been turned into dust. I think they want the entire productive capacity of Taiwan to fall into their lap, like a piece of fruit. So rather than a direct invasion over a hundred miles of Taiwan Strait, I think that Beijing would most likely create some kind of political pretext to justify throwing a blockade around Taiwan which they can do, which they've been practicing. And then they wait to see if the United States came to Taiwan's side and try to break the blockade. I had my doubts in current circumstances, and if China could undertake that kind of operation and effectively surround Taiwan then I think it would only be a matter of time before China gets hegemony and maybe even sovereignty over Taiwan. So, I think Taiwan's in an extraordinarily vulnerable period right now.”

Aside from losing access to Taiwan’s high end semiconductor manufacturing, China’s takeover of Taiwan would then allow China to dominate East Asia, its shipping trade lanes as well as Australia and New Zealand. This, in turn would give China the means to more directly pressure the United States in the Pacific, Bolton warns: “I think, to every other ally in the Indo-Pacific, it would represent a breach by China … They would have full access to the Pacific Ocean for the People's Liberation Army Navy and would signal I think, real competition at a military level …and more directly threatening Australia and New Zealand.”

Declining US Shipbuilding

At that point the lack of modern shipbuilding to build naval and commercial ships comes back to haunt the United States. The People’s Liberation Army Navy is increasing its lead over the US Navy thanks in part to China’s investments making it the world’s leading shipbuilder: “Well, I'd love to see U.S. commercial shipping capacity increased. I'd also like to see the size of the United States Navy, the number of warships we have, the number of logistics and support ships increase. We've watched our shipbuilding industry decline over a long period of time. I don't realistically think we're going to bring it back in a short period of time. I don't think government subsidies are our long-term solution. In any event, I think our immediate objective has to be a substantial increase in the defense budget across the board … The U.S. Navy, I think of all the services, is in the most desperate need of very intensive buildup … And as the threat level rises, I think that number has to go up very substantially, even as the existing fleet ages out even further and our capacity diminishes. If, we had more capability to build both surface ships and submarines for military purposes, then there might be a greater chance to increase on the commercial side too. But I don't think there is a quick answer to this, unfortunately. We have let ourselves get into a very difficult position. Our adversaries know that. And they will take advantage of it, especially in the Pacific.”