A closer look at the Bakken/Three Forks shale play

In addition to frequent press releases and morning comments, Rystad Energy is starting a new line of media publications, called ‘A CLOSER LOOK’. In this communication series we will offer a glimpse of our in-depth monthly regional reports, highlighting trends and providing an outlook on production and spending, among other interesting data findings.

We are beginning this series with a closer look at the Bakken/Three Forks Shale Play. Below is our outlook for the region’s production and spending, followed by a summary of the latest activity, well configuration and productivity trends:

Production in the Bakken/Three Forks Shale Play is set to dive to 1.75 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in 2020, from 2.02 million boepd in 2019 – it will decline even further to 1.63 million boepd in 2021.

However, undrilled risked locations are expected to add sufficient production in order to allow the region’s total output to rise again from 2022 onwards. Production is expected to peak at 2025, but upside potential exists to drive it even higher in the long term.

Drilling and completion spending by the region’s top 10 operators is set to plunge to $4.17 billion in 2020, less than half of the $10.23 billion worth of spending seen in 2019. It is set to decline even further to $3.89 billion in 2021, after which time it will begin to recover. Nevertheless, it is unlikely to reach 2019 levels before 2028.

The spending picture is similar for other operators in the Bakken/Three Forks Shale Play. Their cumulative spending will be reduced by almost a third in 2020, reaching $1.32 billion, down from 2019’s $3.64 billion.

Activity:
Well configuration:
Productivity:
With regards to well configuration data, 2Q data is still incomplete for most states in the US, therefore we provide estimates for the latest quarter with sufficient visibility, 1Q. As for productivity, due to the time frame needed to estimate 30-day IP and EUR, these metrics are provided as of 4Q 2019.

• During 2Q20, 50 horizontal wells were spudded in Bakken/Three Forks Shale. This represents a -85% year-over-year change, and a -82% change quarter-over-quarter.
• During 2Q20, 59 horizontal wells were completed in Bakken/Three Forks Shale. This represents a -84% year-over-year change, and a -80% change quarter-over-quarter.

• About 800 pounds of proppant were used on average per foot to complete horizontal Bakken/Three Forks Shale wells in 1Q20. 53% of frac jobs used frac sand. The remaining 47% used premium proppant mix.
• About 19 barrels of fracking fluid were used on average per foot to complete horizontal Bakken/Three Forks Shale wells in 1Q20.
• In 1Q20, the average lateral length per horizontal well in the Bakken/Three Forks Shale surpassed 10,950 feet. This represents a 11% year-over-year change, and a 6% change quarter-over-quarter.

• Wells that came online during 4Q19 experienced an average 30-day IP rate of about 1,400 barrels per day (bpd; 82% light oil). This represents a 3% year-over-year change, and a 3% change quarter-over-quarter.
• Wells that came online during 4Q19 experienced an average estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of about 560,000 barrels (71% light oil). This represents a -9% year-over-year change, and a -7% change quarter-over-quarter.