2026 U.S. transportation activity indicates steady but slower growth with modest port decline

This report does not constitute a rating action.

S&P Global Ratings believes U.S. GDP growth, projected at 2.0% for 2026 and 1.9% for 2027, will provide a solid foundation for steady activity across most U.S. transportation infrastructure asset classes including airline enplaned passengers, maritime container volumes, tolled transactions, and mass transit ridership.

According to "2026 U.S. Transportation Activity Estimates: Steady But Slower Growth With Modest Port Decline," activity level growth for 2026-2027 will be slower than the post-pandemic recovery years, except for U.S. port operators that we anticipate will see volumes decline in 2026.

Meanwhile, we expect mass transit ridership will remain below pre-pandemic levels (2019) with a full recovery unlikely in the next two-to-three years.

For our activity estimates we use historical information derived from a variety of sources, including our own data collected from issuers, the Federal Highway Administration, the U.S. Department of Transportation, the Federal Aviation Administration, the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, and S&P Global Market Intelligence.

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