Xeneta analyst insight - massive increases in freight rates driven by Middle East conflict and energy crisis fears

The wave of freight rate increases is gathering momentum across global ocean container shipping trades, fueled by ongoing conflict in the Middle East and knock-on disruption in South East Asia ports, plus growing fears of an energy crisis in the second half of 2026.

“Average spot rates from Far East to US West Coast increased 20% in the past week and now sit +109% compared to pre-Middle East conflict on 28 February. From Far East to North Europe and Mediterranean, spot rates have increased 46% and 47% respectively in the past week.

“The freight rate increases are partly due to delays at major South East Asia ports including Singapore and Port Klang as services adjust to new networks and workarounds in response to the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Port disruption is toxic for supply chains, especially at transshipments hubs with global significance in South East Asia, so this is driving massive market spikes on trades such as the Transpacific which does not transit the Middle East.

“The prospect of an energy crisis caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockade and increasing oil prices may be enticing shippers to bring imports forward if they face higher manufacturing costs and higher freight rates later in the year. If shippers do look to frontload imports, then carriers will look to push rates higher and higher, so the market may yet be far from its peak across trades globally.”

Data highlights

Market average spot rates – 5 June 2026

Far East to US West Coast: USD 3,933 per FEU (40ft container)

Far East to US East Coast: USD 5,103 per FEU

Far East to North Europe: USD 3,649 per FEU

Far East to Mediterranean: USD 5,041 per FEU

North Europe to US East Coast: USD 2,292 per FEU

Market average spot rates compared to pre-Middle East conflict (28 February)

Far East to US West Coast: +109%

Far East to US East Coast: +92%

Far East to North Europe: +65%

Far East to Mediterranean: +51%

North Europe to US East Coast: +55%

Offered capacity (4-week rolling average) – w/c 1 June 2026

Far East to US West Coast: +9.2% from a week ago

Far East to US East Coast: +3.2% from a week ago

Far East to North Europe: -6.5% from a week ago

Far East to Mediterranean: +0.4% from a week ago

North Europe to US East Coast: -10.9% from a week ago