China’s commodity industry, the world’s leading consumer of raw materials, is ensnared in chaos as the coronavirus delivers the worst demand shock since the global financial crisis.
Trade in almost every major commodity is at risk: oil demand has plunged 20% and refineries are curbing operations, liquefied-natural-gas buyers are reneging on deals, coal mines are staying shut, copper smelters are mulling output cuts, and crop cargoes are getting stuck at ports.
That’s wreaking havoc on commodity flows across the world, with sales of Latin American crude to China halted and those from West Africa slower than usual. Ships will be quarantined in Australia, and Indonesia plans to halt food imports from the Asian nation. Miners Anglo American Plc and Rio Tinto Group have restricted travel, and OPEC is considering an emergency meeting.
“This could impact the entire global supply chain,” said Bart Melek, head of global commodity strategy at TD Bank in Toronto. “There are limitations in air transport already. In China, logistics are challenging and there are measures being taken. For some industries that means goods produced in China may not arrive to the United States.”
The disruptions show the far-reaching impact of the deadly virus, which spread over the Lunar New Year holiday and has dampened the outlook for growth in the world’s second-biggest economy. While industrial activity typically slows during the break, the epidemic is delaying the resumption of operations. Additionally, gasoline and jet-fuel demand has been hurt by travel cuts.
Chinese commodity prices collapsed on the first day of trading after the Lunar New Year break on Monday, as investors returned to markets gripped by fear over the impact the coronavirus. The country’s three major raw-material exchanges were hit by a wave of selling as Chinese traders got their first opportunity to catch up with losses inflicted on overseas markets while they had been on holiday.
Metals, energy and agriculture futures were all hammered, with iron ore, crude, copper and palm oil contracts all sinking by their daily allowable limit within seconds of markets opening. Shares in commodity producers also tumbled as stock markets resumed trading.
Commodities have been clobbered around the world, from copper in London to palm oil in Kuala Lumpur over fears about the economic fallout from the virus. More than a dozen Chinese provinces have announced an extension of the new year holiday by more than a week in a bid to halt the spread of the virus, which has killed hundreds of people and sickened thousands.
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