WorldACD Weekly Air Cargo Trends (week 39) - 2024

After contracting by -2% the previous week as a result of national holidays in China, South Korea, and Chile, total global chargeable weight rebounded in week 39 (23-29 September) with a +2% week-on-week (WoW) increase, raising worldwide tonnages in week 39 to around +10% above their equivalent levels this time last year. That WoW increase in week 39 included traffic rebounding from Asia Pacific (+6%) and from Central & South America (CSA, +4%) – a recovery effect from the holidays the previous week. Combined with an increase from Middle East & South Asia (MESA, +2%) origins, these increases more than compensated for -2% WoW declines from Europe and North America.

Analysis of the Asia Pacific to Europe market highlights some big WoW tonnage increases in week 39 from individual countries including China (+9%), South Korea (+26%) and Taiwan (+16%), but these mostly reflect a rebound following last week’s mid-autumn festival holidays. However, tonnages from Hong Kong to Europe have risen consistently in the last five weeks (+19% compared with week 34) to their highest levels for several months. Meanwhile, tonnages from China and the wider Asia Pacific market to the USA were both up by +5%, WoW, and there were big WoW increases to the USA from MESA (+11%), including from India (+16%) and Bangladesh (+12%).

On the pricing side, average worldwide rates – based on a full-market average of spot and contract rates – in week 39 edged up slightly (+1%, WoW) to US$2.61 per kilo, taking them +10% higher, year on year (YoY), based on the more than 450,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data. But the changes to spot rates are more pronounced, for both WoW and YoY comparisons. For example, average global spot rates rose, WoW, by +4% in week 39 to $2.86 a kilo, which is +20% above last year’s levels. The biggest WoW increase came from North America (+6%) and Europe (+5%) origins, although there were notable further increases from Asia Pacific (+3% to $4.14) and MESA (+2% to $3.62 per kilo), taking spot rates from those two regions +26% and +86% higher, respectively, YoY.

MESA and Bangladesh disruptions continue

Whereas demand and rates from most MESA origins have been highly elevated for much of this year, bolstered by the disruptions to ocean freight supply chains caused by the attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, Bangladesh continues to face additional major challenges, resulting from ongoing political instability and logistics disruptions. For example, tonnages flown to Europe from Bangladesh in September were down by around -15%, YoY, and Bangladesh to Europe spot rates have remained extremely high throughout the month, at well above US$5 per kilo. Although they eased slightly in week 39 to $5.11 a kilo, they remain easily more than double last year’s levels (+138%). Meanwhile, Bangladesh to USA tonnages are up substantially, YoY (by around +50% in September), and Bangladesh to USA spot rates of more than $7 per kilo throughout September have been more than three times their equivalent levels last year.

Amid rising tensions in the Middle East, continuing disruptions to container shipping in that region, and anticipation of US port strikes, tonnages flown from the whole MESA region to the USA have risen in the last four weeks by around +13%. In addition to the higher volumes from Bangladesh, tonnages from multimodal hubs such as Colombo and Dubai to the USA are up very substantially, YoY. For example, in the last two full weeks of September, tonnages to the USA from Colombo were around double their levels last year, and from Dubai they were around three times last year’s levels.

Full-month and quarterly increases

Provisional full-month figures for September indicate that chargeable weight rose by a further +1% compared with August, taking tonnages +9% above last year’s levels. That’s a slightly smaller YoY percentage tonnage increase compared with most months this year, although tonnages last September had already begun picking up significantly driven by rising cross-border e-commerce air cargo levels. Full-month average worldwide rates in September, meanwhile, rose by a further +3%, MoM – a stronger MoM increase than in previous months. Compared with September 2023, average worldwide (combined contract and spot) rates were up +14%, YoY, with spot rates up by +22%, YoY, to US$2.80 per kilo in September.

Analysis of the third quarter (Q3) of 2024 indicates that worldwide chargeable weight rose by a further +1%, compared with Q2 (quarter on quarter, or QoQ), and by +11%, YoY. That’s broadly in line with YoY comparisons in Q1 and Q2, which were both up, YoY, by +12%. Average worldwide rates, meanwhile, also recorded a QoQ rise of +1%, with a YoY increase of +10%.

The YoY increases in both tonnages and rates – in September, Q3 and throughout this year – have clearly been largely driven by Asia Pacific and MESA markets, and these two origin regions look set to be key factors in the final quarter of 2024. It’s unclear to what extent the still unresolved US port disputes will contribute to air cargo demand, but further disruption to container shipping there can only add to the pressure on an already stretched air cargo system – facing very strong expected demand and limited available capacity from both of those regions in Q4.