WorldACD Weekly Air Cargo Trends (week 31)

Tonnages and rates up +12% in July, Bangladesh tonnages recover

Average worldwide air cargo rates and tonnages in July were up by +12%, year on year (YoY), driven by continuing strong demand from sectors such as e-commerce and persistent disruptions to supply chains in various parts of the world.

According to the latest figures from WorldACD Market Data, average global rates rose by a further +2% in July compared with June, to US$2.50 a kilo, based on a full-market average of spot rates and contract rates – a +44% increase compared with the last pre-Covid equivalent period, July 2019. Worldwide rates have risen progressively from an average of around $2.30 in the first quarter, to around $2.45 in the second quarter, edging up slightly further in July to $2.50 a kilo.

July’s YoY rate increase of +12% is also by far the biggest YoY monthly increase this year, significantly above the +2% and +6% YoY increases achieved in May and June, respectively. However, this mostly reflects a progressive decline in average rates that occurred last year.

Asia Pacific to the USA was among the key lanes driving up overall average prices in July 2024, where spot rates averaging around $5.80 a kilo across the month were up significantly compared with the already-elevated rates recorded in June. Compared with July 2023, spot rates from Asia Pacific to the USA were up by close to +70%.

Analysis of last week

Based on the more than 450,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data, average worldwide rates remained stable in week 31 (29 July to 4 August), with rates from Africa origins dipping by -5% but with prices from the other main global origin regions holding firm or increasing slightly. Compared with last year, rates of $2.49 per kilo in week 31 were up by +12%, thanks largely to YoY increases of +56% from Middle East and South Asia (MESA) origins and +22% from Asia Pacific origins.

Combining the figures for weeks 30 and 31, both tonnages and rates are down slightly (-1%) compared with the previous two weeks (2Wo2W). But both tonnages and rates are still comfortably up compared with last year, by +9% and +12%, respectively, mainly driven by Asia Pacific and MESA origin traffic, while capacity has increased by just +3%, YoY.

Bangladesh disruptions

Despite continuing political and logistical disruptions taking place in Bangladesh, air cargo tonnages from Bangladesh bounced back in week 31. For example, after plunging the previous two weeks (weeks 28-29), tonnages from Bangladesh to Europe recovered in week 31 to the levels seen in weeks 25-28. These tonnage levels in recent weeks are still well below the levels flown in the equivalent weeks last year, although those comparison months last year were particularly strong months for Bangladesh-Europe tonnages.

But on the pricing side, spot rates from Bangladesh to Europe rose even higher in week 31 to their highest level this year, $4.87 a kilo, from the already extremely elevated levels seen throughout 2024, as the disruptions to air services and customs clearance services in the country added to an already-constrained capacity market. That figure of $4.87 a kilo is almost three times (+173%) the equivalent week last year.