WorldACD weekly air cargo trends (week 24)

The gap between global air cargo tonnages this year and the equivalent period in 2022 has narrowed to just -4% in the first two full weeks of June, down from -6% at the end of May, -10% in April, and -11% in the first quarter, while average rates in May and June have stabilized at around -37% below their level this time last year, according to the latest weekly figures from WorldACD Market Data.

Figures for week 24 (12 to 18 June) show a stable trend in tonnages and average global air cargo prices, week on week (WoW), continuing the flattening of the negative trend seen since the beginning of June – based on the more than 400,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data.

Comparing weeks 23 and 24 with the preceding two weeks (2Wo2W), overall tonnages decreased by -1% versus their combined total in weeks 21 and 22, with capacity up +2% and average worldwide rates slightly falling (-1%).

At a regional level, all origin regions showed a downward trend in tonnages on a 2Wo2W basis, except ex-Middle East & South Asia (+1%) and North America (+6%).

Region to region, notable decreases can be observed between Europe and Central & South America (northbound -11%, southbound -7%), between Europe and Africa (both directions -8%) and ex-Central & South America to North America (-6%), while flows ex-North America displayed growth to Asia Pacific (+9%), Central & South America (+5%) and to Europe (+5%), respectively.

On the pricing side, average rates remain more or less stable, on a 2Wo2W basis, with a few exceptions – most notably a -4% decrease on the flows ex-Europe to Asia Pacific and to Middle East & South Asia, and a -4% drop ex-North America to Europe and to Central & South America.

Year-on-Year Perspective

Comparing the overall global market with this time last year, chargeable weight in weeks 23 and 24 was down -4% compared with the equivalent period last year – a significant deceleration in the rate of year-on-year (YoY) decline compared with the often double-digit percentage drops in the first few months of this year. Tonnages ex-Asia Pacific were down just -1%, YoY, and there were increases in traffic ex-Africa (+6%) and ex-Middle East & South Asia (+4%). But these limited YoY increases were outweighed by decreases in tonnages ex-North America (-14%) and ex-Europe (-5%).

Overall capacity has increased by +15% compared with last year, with capacity ex-Asia Pacific up by a noteworthy +32% and double-digit YoY percentage increases from all regions except Central & South America (-7%).

Worldwide average rates are currently -37% below their levels this time last year, at an average of US$2.40 per kilo in week 24, although they remain significantly above pre-Covid levels (+36% compared to June 2019).