US-Iran deal would delay, not end, supply crisis—Rystad Energy market note

Reports of a US-Iran peace deal are gaining credibility, with Pakistan's foreign ministry stating it expects a resolution “very soon” and Washington anticipating an Iranian response within 48 hours. Even if a deal is struck, Rystad Energy cautions that the consequences for physical oil markets will be slower and more conditional than futures prices are currently pricing in.

The possible peace framework as currently understood involves a moratorium on Iranian nuclear enrichment, sanctions relief, and a 30-day negotiating window, with a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz phased over that same period.

This is not a resolution, it is a structured pause, a distinction that matters enormously for physical barrels.

Rystad Energy’s prior estimate of six to eight weeks between a credible access condition and meaningful volume recovery remains intact.

Physical flows back to 80–90% of pre-disruption levels are a July story. Processing port arrivals lag by an additional four to six weeks.

The price impact of a deal is being felt immediately in futures. The physical market will take considerably longer to agree.

Several signals distinguish today’s situation from prior episodes where US proposals have been floated and failed to materialize.

China has changed its posture. Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi made his first visit to Beijing since the war began on February 28.

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi publicly called for a comprehensive ceasefire and for Hormuz to reopen “as soon as possible.”

Beijing describing itself as “deeply distressed” while hosting Iran’s top diplomat is a materially different posture than anything seen to date.

China’s leverage over Iranian oil revenues gives it tools Washington does not have, and there is now direct evidence it is deploying them.

The US has made a tangible operational concession. President Trump has paused US efforts to escort commercial vessels through the Strait, explicitly to give a deal room to close.

That is a significant shift in operational posture.

The IRGC is silent. Unlike every previous juncture where US proposals have been floated, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has not commented.

Navigation statements aside, there has been no significant political response or official positioning. In Rystad Energy’s view, that silence is analytically significant.

It suggests the proposal is being considered at a level that warrants caution before public response.