US import prices rise marginally in November

U.S. import prices barely rose in November as increases in the costs of food and fuels were partially offset by decreases elsewhere, thanks to a strong dollar and suggesting that inflation pressures could subside in the months ahead.

Import prices edged up 0.1% last month after a downwardly revised 0.1% rise in October, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast import prices, which exclude tariffs, declining 0.2% after a previously reported 0.3% gain in October.

In the 12 months through November, import prices increased 1.3% after advancing 0.6% in October.

The improvement in inflation has stalled in recent months, but there has been no noticeable deterioration. The government reported on Wednesday that consumer prices increased by the most in seven months in November, while a measure of underlying price pressures continued to run firmer over the past four months.

Though producer prices notched their largest monthly gain in five months, services inflation slowed in November, leading economists to anticipate benign readings in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price measures tracked by the Federal Reserve for its 2% target.

A 25 basis points interest rate cut next Wednesday has almost been priced in. The scope for rate cuts next year could be limited by President-elect Donald Trump's incoming administration's plans to increase tariffs and deport millions of undocumented immigrants.

The U.S. central bank's benchmark overnight interest rate has been reduced to the 4.50%-4.75% range since it launched its policy easing cycle in September. The policy rate was hiked by 5.25 percentage points between March 2022 and July 2023.

STRONG DOLLAR EFFECT

Imported fuel prices rebounded 1.0% last month after declining 0.8% in October. Prices for petroleum and its products rose a moderate 0.4%. Imported natural gas prices shot up 47.4%.

Food prices increased 1.3% after declining for three consecutive months. They were boosted by a 13.1% jump in the cost of vegetables. The surge suggested that food prices, which have risen at both the consumer and producer levels, could continue to march higher in the months ahead.

Excluding fuels and food, import prices were unchanged after rising 0.3% in October. The so-called core import prices were restrained by the dollar's strength against the currencies of the United States' main trade partners.

The trade-weighted dollar, adjusted for inflation, rose 2.1% between October and November. The dollar has rallied on expectations of fewer rate cuts next year. Core import prices increased 2.0% year-on-year in November.

Prices of imported capital goods dipped 0.1% as did those of automotive vehicles, parts and engines. Import consumer goods, excluding automotives, ticked up 0.1% for the third straight month in November.

The cost of goods imported from China slipped 0.1% the second consecutive month. They have not increased on a monthly basis since October 2022. Prices of Chinese imports dropped 0.9% year-on-year in November. Prices of goods imported from Canada fell 0.4%, but the cost of Mexican imports increased 0.3%.

The report also showed export prices were unchanged in November after advancing 1.0% in October. Higher nonagricultural prices were offset by weaker prices for agricultural exports, which were weighed down by lower prices for soybeans and fruit.

Export prices increased 0.8% year-on-year in November after gaining 0.1% in October.