U.S. tariffs could hit traffic volumes on Mexican toll roads

Amid high industrial and commercial activity, S&P Global Ratings expects Mexican toll road performance to remain strong in the next 12-24 months, with traffic volumes outpacing national GDP projections about 2x, according to a new report.

Nonetheless, increased dependence on economic activity with the U.S. means heavy vehicle traffic could weaken if President Trump's administration adopts a general tariff policy on Mexican exports, denting economic activity.

In this context, we think Mexican toll projects' subordinated series debt would be most affected, with the potential for rating changes, while debt service coverage ratios are sufficient for senior series debt to absorb a deterioration in heavy traffic volumes.

The full report: "From Tariffs To Traffic Volumes: Potential Economic Effects On Mexican Toll Roads," is available on RatingsDirect.

S&P Global Ratings believes there is a high degree of unpredictability around policy implementation by the U.S. administration and possible responses--specifically with regard to tariffs--and the potential effect on economies, supply chains, and credit conditions around the world. As a result, our baseline forecasts carry a significant amount of uncertainty. As situations evolve, we will gauge the macro and credit materiality of potential and actual policy shifts and reassess our guidance accordingly.

This report does not constitute a rating action.