Today in energy: EIA forecasts Alaska crude oil production will grow in 2026 for the first time since 2017

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2025

In our March 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast crude oil production in Alaska will increase by 16,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2026 to 438,000 b/d after remaining relatively flat in 2025. Two new oil developments in Alaska—the Nuna and Pikka projects—are expected to boost crude oil production in the state after decades of decline. If realized, this annual production increase will be the first since 2017 and the largest since 2002.

Average annual crude oil production in Alaska peaked at 2.0 million b/d in 1988, and production has since fallen largely because of the production decline of mature oil fields, limited lease availability, and high exploration and production costs.

ConocoPhillips produced first oil from the Nuna project in December 2024. We forecast annual crude oil production in Alaska to average 422,000 b/d in 2025, an annual increase of 1,000 b/d, compared with the previous five-year (2020–24) average annual decline of 9,000 b/d. The decline in existing well production is offset by the added production from the Nuna project on the North Slope. ConocoPhillips expects the Nuna project’s 29 wells will produce a combined 20,000 b/d of oil at its peak.

Additional production from the Phase 1 of the Pikka development project on the North Slope drives the forecast increased production in 2026. The Pikka project, which is jointly owned by Santos and Repsol, is one of the most significant oil developments in Alaska in recent years. At the project’s peak, the companies plan to produce 80,000 b/d from 45 wells.

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Wells by Production Rate, 2024, and company reports for Nuna and Pikka projects

The projects would be among the most productive wells in Alaska if they come online as the companies are currently planning. Our annual U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Wells by Production Rate report details state-level distributions of active production. The production profile for Alaska in 2023 records 2,340 active wells, 65% of which produce more than 100 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d).

The production estimates from the Nuna and Pikka wells reported by the companies fall on the high side of the 2023 Alaskan active well distribution. As of 2023, the highest concentration of active Alaskan wells was between 100 BOE/d and 200 BOE/d. The reported production rates show these upcoming projects to be at the production brackets of 400 BOE/d–799 BOE/d and 1,600 BOE/d–3,199 BOE/d, respectively.

Data source: Baker Hughes Company

Although both onshore and offshore drilling occur in Alaska, most of the activity is on land, particularly in the North Slope, which is where the Nuna and Pikka projects are being developed.

As of December 2024, 22% of the wells for the Nuna and Pikka projects have been drilled, according to company reports and the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission. The companies plan to drill an additional 58 wells by 2028, which would support relatively high rig activity.

The increased crude oil production will go to supply refineries in Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and California.