The Freight Buyers’ Club: De Minimis ban, tariffs & peak season: The air cargo outlook

From May 2025, low-value shipments from China and Hong Kong lost their U.S. duty-free status. On 29 August, that de minimis exemption will be suspended worldwide – disrupting cross-border e-commerce, shifting trade lanes, and forcing forwarders, integrators and carriers to rethink strategy.

This episode of The Freight Buyers’ Club – produced with the support of MSC Air Cargo – explores who wins and loses from these changes, how integrators like DHL, FedEx and UPS are adapting, and the wider impact on air cargo capacity, rates and supply chains.

We also examine how new tariff regimes are reshaping global trade, the outlook for an unpredictable Q4 2025 peak season, and expert predictions for the industry in 2026.

Guests:

Brandon Fried – Executive Director, Airforwarders Association

Neel Jones Shah – Senior Advisor, The Boston Consulting Group & MD at INOA Capital (former EVP at Flexport and Chief Cargo Officer at Delta Air Lines)

Discussion highlights:

• What ending de minimis means for cross-border e-commerce flows

• How integrators like DHL, FedEx and UPS are adapting

• Which trade lanes could benefit from shifting volumes

• Deep dive on key air cargo markets including the transatlantic, India, Latin America and Southeast Asia

• The role of Latin America as Chinese e-commerce pivots away from the U.S.

• New tariffs and their impact on high-value, time-sensitive air cargo

• Will peak season 2025 be muted – or surprise to the upside?