Surging Vietnam exports signal hope for global demand recovery

Vietnam’s exports climbed at the fastest pace in more than two years in January, a performance attributable largely to a weaker year-ago showing than a return of global demand.

The value of overseas shipments increased 42% from a year earlier, official data showed Monday, compared with the median estimate for a 31% increase in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Imports rose 33.3%, while the trade surplus widened to $2.92 billion.

The data from trade-reliant Vietnam holds out some hope for a recovery in global demand, even as China’s economic expansion faces multiple challenges. The World Bank earlier this month forecast global growth in 2024 to slow for a third straight year to 2.4% — down from 2.6% last year. 

Exports account for about 100% of Vietnam’s economy, making it one of the most trade-dependent nations in the world. Other data showed domestic consumer activity was healthy, with retail sales staying in high single digit at 8.1%. 

That was accompanied by moderating inflation. Consumer prices rose 3.37% in January, compared with 3.58% in December. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for a 3.3% gain.