December CNBC/NRF retail monitor results show strong growth boosted by final Thanksgiving weekend days

Retail sales jumped strongly in December, boosted in part by two busy holiday shopping days during Thanksgiving weekend falling in the final month of the year, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, released today by the National Retail Federation.

“Growth rebounded strongly in December from a misleadingly weaker November as the result of the final two days of the busy Thanksgiving holiday weekend being included in December’s data,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Calendar issues aside, value-conscious customers showed enthusiasm for celebrating loved ones with the right gifts at the right price points for their budgets in December. Households are in good financial shape amid low unemployment, growing income and continued deceleration of inflation for goods. We remain confident in our 2024 holiday forecast and retail sales projection for the year.”

Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were up 1.74% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 7.24% unadjusted year over year in December, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with increases of 0.15% month over month and 2.35% year over year in November.

The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants in addition to automobiles dealers and gasoline stations) was up 2.19% month over month in December and up 8.41% year over year. That compared with a decrease of 0.19% month over month and an increase of 1.43% year over year in November.

The numbers reflect the fact that the Sunday after Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday both fell in December rather than November because of the later-than-usual Thanksgiving in 2024, likely giving a meaningful boost to December.

The results follow NRF’s forecasts that 2024 retail sales for the full year and 2024 holiday retail sales during November and December – excluding autos, gas and restaurants – would both increase between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023. The forecasts are based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, and final results will be known when the Census Bureau releases December’s results on Thursday.

Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.

December sales were up across the board on a yearly basis, led by online sales, clothing and accessories stores, and electronics and appliances stores. Sales were up in all but one of nine categories on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:

• Online and other non-store sales were up 4.49% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 33.05% year over year unadjusted.

• Clothing and accessories stores were up 4.07% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 14.47% year over year unadjusted.

• Electronics and appliance stores were up 3.25% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 10.23% year over year unadjusted.

• General merchandise stores were up 3.24% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 9.77% year over year unadjusted.

• Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were up 3.81% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 7.43% year over year unadjusted.

• Health and personal care stores were up 1.85% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 6.98% year over year unadjusted.

• Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 0.84% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 5.34% year over year unadjusted.

• Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.59% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 4.27% year over year unadjusted.

• Building and garden supply stores were down 0.09% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 0.85% year over year unadjusted.