Signal Ocean Minor Bulk Radar - July 2025

Executive Summary

On the whole, minor dry bulks performed in line with historical trends in June 2025, although the m/m fall was slightly ahead of recent years. On a y/y basis, June exports performed well, up 5% from June 2024. In fact, the first two quarters of 2025 have seen positive growth in terms of export tonnage, leading to greater shipping demand as evidenced by the strong tonne-mile performance of the minor bulk market so far in 2025.

Contents

• Economics Environment

◦ ManufacturingPMIs

◦ Exchange Rates

◦ Baltic Indexes

• Minor Bulk

◦ Bauxite

◦ Nickel Ore

◦ Sugar

Economic Environment

Manufacturing PMI’s

Baltic Indexes

Minor bulk

Bauxite

TSOP saw global bauxite exports in June 2025 broadly in line with expectations. A 20% fall in exports m/m highlights the common seasonal decline that typically begins towards the end of Q2. Looking at the y/y year number, we see strong growth of 9% in June 2025, highlighting that bauxite demand remains positive. This has been driven by exports from Guinea and Australia, which have seen y/y growth of 16% and 7% respectively.

How exports from Guinea fare in 2025 Q3 is the most interesting aspect of bauxite for the maritime industry, as the aluminum raw material is driving capesize demand from the West Coast of Africa. As mentioned above, bauxite exports from Guinea face a notable seasonality. The West African Monsoon season starts in May through to October, and the heavy rains impact the full supply chain from mines to ports. 2023 and 2024 were notably wet monsoon seasons, and exports during Q3 of both years reduced outside of normal ranges, 14% and 17% respectively. The guidance so far for 2025 is that the rains will be middling, offering the hope that export softening will be more in line with the 12% reduction seen between 2022 Q2 and Q3.

Chinese bauxite demand also offers support to Guinea’s bauxite export potential through Q3. China has not slowed in its aluminum production in 2025, despite an ongoing 45mt annual cap implemented by the government. The latest available data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics shows that May production of Electrolyzed aluminum was 44% higher than that of the previous year. Production in May 2024 was impeded due to several smelter bottlenecks caused by issues like the availability of inputs such as hydropower. In May 2025, these issues have not been present.

A more long-term strategic proposition is whether Guinea imposes a more targeted revocation of bauxite mining licenses in an attempt to tighten control over the mineral and move Guinea’s export up the value chain by increasing domestic processing capacity. The most recent round of revocation has aimed mostly at underperforming mines and those that have not committed to the 2022 Mining Code (Article 15), which mandates that firms must plan to or build local processing facilities by 2027. If the country were able to convert all the domestic bauxite it currently exports into alumina, the next stage on the ore’s journey to becoming aluminum, this would have a heavy impact on shipping demand, weighing heavily on tonne-miles. The current guidance is that between 4 and 5 tonnes of bauxite can produce around 2 tonnes of alumina. With all else staying equal, this would effectively halve the tonne-miles and tonne-days of West Africa to China, impacting freight rates negatively. However, the full realization of the scenario is unlikely, and bauxite vs alumina exports would likely gradually adjust, giving time for the supply chain to adjust.