Signal Ocean chart of the week: Spotlight on Brazilian iron ore shipments to the Far East

This Chart Monitor highlights a continued upward trend in Brazilian iron ore shipments. Since the end of Q1, each month's closing volume has exceeded levels seen in previous years. The first quarter of 2025 closed with approximately 70 million tons shipped, followed by over 80 million tons in Q2. These figures are notably higher than the lows recorded in 2021—around 50 million tons in Q1 and 67 million tons in Q2.

Looking ahead, recent news from Vale’s Q2 production report adds to the bullish sentiment. The Brazilian miner reported 83.6 million metric tons of iron ore output in Q2, a 3.7% year-on-year increase. The growth was largely attributed to a new second-quarter production record at the S11D mine in northern Brazil, Vale’s largest operation, and a strong performance at the Brucutu mine in the southeast. With production ramping up and iron ore flows increasing, we are likely to see continued upward pressure on the C3 route in the coming weeks, as tightening vessel supply and rising cargo volumes converge to support a firmer freight market.