Signal Ocean: Chart of the Week - Russian wheat flows to all destinations

Egypt’s near-doubling of Russian wheat imports in November is consistent with the country’s renewed buying spree, as state buyer Mostakbal Misr secured roughly 500,000 tonnes of Black Sea wheat, including a large share from Russia, for December–January delivery, while Egypt intensified purchases to stabilise domestic supply. Recent reports also note that Ukraine and Bulgaria have increased shipments to Egypt, but Russia remains the dominant supplier, reinforced by high-level negotiations and deepening economic ties highlighted during Russia’s November delegation visit to Cairo. Together, these developments confirm the sharp year-on-year rebound in Egypt’s intake of Russian wheat and its continued role as Moscow’s top overseas market.

FREIGHT MARKET Mixed
Market price trends depicted are based on Signal Ocean Assessments. For real-time updates and historical comparisons, access our Freight Market Analytics dashboard here: Signal Ocean Freight Market Analytics.The Capesize freight market gained significant momentum. In contrast, the Panamax and Supramax sectors exhibited weaker momentum, particularly for routes from the East Coast of South America (ECSA) and the US Gulf (USG) to the Far East.

Capesize | Firmer

• The upward momentum on both the C3 and C5 routes persisted into the first days of December. The Brazil–China rate (C3) reached $25 per ton, showing a 9% month-on-month increase. More surprisingly, the Australia–China rate (C5) experienced a 22% monthly upward trend, fetching $12.5 per ton.

Panamax | Weaker

• Both the Continent–Far East and ECSA–Far East Panamax routes continue to show clear downward momentum. While the Continent-Far East posted a marginal daily uptick at the end of the week, the picture remains negative, rates are down 2.2% week-on-week and nearly 8% quarterly. The ECSA–Far East route shows an even more persistent weakening trend, down 2.7% weekly and 5.7% quarterly.

Supramax | Weaker

• Supramax sentiment across the Med/Black Sea, USG, and ECSA is beginning to cool, with all three routes showing signs of downward momentum despite small daily fluctuations in the first days of December. The Med/Black Sea–Far East route slipped 0.3% on the day and remains slightly negative week-on-week. The USG–Far East route managed a marginal 0.1% daily uptick, but its weekly gain of 0.7% is modest. Similarly, the ECSA–Far East route rose 0.2% on the day but is still down 1.0% on the week.

BALLASTERS OVERVIEW Capesize | Vessel count grows in Australasia

• In the Atlantic, the North Atlantic region experienced an 8% increase, while the South Atlantic saw an 8% decrease. Concurrently, the Pacific region is noting growing pressure, particularly in Australasia, where the vessel count exceeded 230 in early December.

Panamax | Vessel count grows in South Atlantic and Australasia

• Ballaster movements were mixed across the Atlantic basin, with the North Atlantic down 5% week-on-week, while the South Atlantic recorded a strong 26% increase, indicating a sharp rise in vessels repositioning into the area. In the Pacific, activity was more moderate: FEAST/NOPAC rose by 3%, and Australasia saw a notable 15% increase, pointing to a steady buildup of tonnage across the wider Pacific region. The Indian Ocean/South Africa moved in the opposite direction, declining by 4% week-on-week.

Supramax | Vessel count grows in the Indian Ocean and North/South Atlantic

• Ballaster movements strengthened sharply in the Atlantic basin, with the North Atlantic up 30% week-on-week and the South Atlantic also rising 30%, signalling a significant increase in vessels repositioning into both regions. In the Pacific, trends were more mixed: FEAST/NOPAC climbed 8%, while Australasia edged lower by 2%. Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean/South Africa posted the strongest shift overall, jumping 43% week-on-week.

Handysize | Vessel count grows in North Atlantic

• Ballaster movements surged across the Atlantic basin, with the North Atlantic up 50% week-on-week and the South Atlantic rising 13%, reflecting a strong influx of repositioning tonnage into both regions. In the Pacific, FEAST/NOPAC vessel count climbed 17%, while Australasia posted a solid 23% increase. Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean/South Africa slipped 3% week-on-week, marking a slight easing in available ballasters in that region.

DEMAND | Tonne Days VS Baltic Capesize Index

The Capesize segment takes center stage regarding demand, focusing on the increase in tonne-days relative to the Baltic Capesize Index. The tighter supply of ballasters in the South Atlantic combined with the rise in tonne-days, has positively impacted the freight market sentiment.

The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) has now reached its highest level of the year, supported by a steady recovery in tonne-days. Tonne-days for Capesize vessels have risen consistently from the late-August lows, currently holding above 130M after briefly approaching 140M at the end of October.
As we enter the final stretch of Q4, market sentiment has turned more positive. This shift comes even as China’s property sector continues to influence expectations for steel production and iron ore demand. Meanwhile, seaborne supply from Brazil, Australia, and South Africa remains firm, with export programmes indicating stable flows into year-end.

CONGESTION | Gladstone

Congestion at Gladstone is clearly elevated and accelerating into December 2025, with the number of vessels rising sharply from mid-November to early December and reaching just above 50 ships, well above the 35–45 range seen through 2024 and marking the highest level in two years. The latest surge appears to align with earlier-year throughput weakness, supply-chain delays, and a strong Q4 push in coal and bauxite exports.

The significant escalation in dry bulk traffic is highlighted by week-on-week and month-on-month jumps of 31% and 28%, suggesting this rise is more substantial than typical seasonal variation. The majority of this traffic involves Panamax, Post-Panamax, and Capesize vessels. Furthermore, the cargo composition intensifies the pressure: metallurgical coal constitutes approximately 40% of port activity, with bauxite following at 20%, thermal coal at 16%, and alumina at 13%.