Ryanair cuts forecast, sees ‘materially lower’ summer fares

Ryanair Holdings Plc cut its outlook for ticket prices in the crucial summer travel period and said fares will be “materially lower” as consumers grow more cautious, adding to pessimism that the post-pandemic rebound in flying is fizzling. 

The shares fell as much as 13%, the most in four years. Ryanair previously saw fares in its fiscal second quarter being “flat to modestly up,” after they fell 15% in the first three months of its financial year. Net income declined by almost half to €360 million in the June quarter, Ryanair said in a statement.  

Ryanair’s subdued outlook affirms an emerging view within aviation that consumer spending remains lackluster even though travel has rebounded from the pandemic slump. The cautious projection follows other carriers, including Deutsche Lufthansa AG, Delta Air Lines and Qatar Airways, all saying that there’s pressure on fares. 

Airbus said on Sunday that it’s also seeing signs of declining yields and overcapacity. Aviation executives are gathering at the Farnborough International Air Show this week near London, a venue where major aircraft purchases are signed and a barometer for the health of the industry. 

The summer is crucial for airlines as the period when they make most of their money. The season has so far proven challenging for carriers because of lower yields, air-traffic control issues, aircraft delivery delays and a global IT outage last week that canceled and delayed thousands of flights. 

Ryanair’s intraday decline was the biggest intraday since May 2020. Other airline stocks also dropped, with low-cost rivals EasyJet Plc and Wizz Air Holdings Plc sliding 8% or more.

While carriers were expecting capacity constraints to drive up fares, so far they’ve remained lower, forcing airlines including Ryanair to offer discounts to fill extra seat capacity. Chief Executive Michael O’Leary previously said low consumer confidence was forcing fares down.

“Consumers are just a little bit more frugal,” Chief Financial Officer Neil Sorahan said on a call. “People want to get out there, but they’re just a bit more cautious in how they’re spending their money.”

The finance chief said Ryanair can afford to fly at slightly lower fares because it has the cost advantage, and that the carrier’s strategy has always been to fill the planes, “and we price accordingly.” 

The airline also warned that delivery delays with Boeing Co. 737 Max jets could slip further but that there was an improvement in the quality and frequency of deliveries in the first quarter. Traffic for the full year is projected to grow 8% as long as Boeing deliveries aren’t delayed further, the company said. Ryanair remains about 20 planes short of its contract, and the company is now focused on getting the remaining 50 units, the CFO said.

Sales in the fiscal first quarter slipped 1% to €3.63 billion, Ryanair said. The company said it suffered from the absence of the first half of Easter that fell into March, and the requirement for more price stimulation than it had anticipated. The airline also had higher operating costs as fuel-hedge savings were offset by higher staff and other costs affiliated with Boeing delays.

Ryanair is the first major European airline to report earnings for the quarter, followed by EasyJet on Wednesday and IAG SA and Wizz next week. Before Monday, the Irish airline’s stock had declined 14% this year, compared with a 10% drop at EasyJet and a 2% gain at Wizz.