RXO’s latest curve forecast shows measured truckload market recovery

RXO, a leading provider of asset-light transportation solutions, a leading provider of asset-light transportation solutions, has released the latest update to its proprietary Curve truckload market forecast, which recaps Q2 2025 performance, covers macroeconomic indicators and trends driving the truckload market, and provides a Q3 2025 freight market forecast.

“Freight market conditions remained soft in the second quarter. However, with continued carrier exits, the market is responding to seasonality and is more balanced when compared to the last few years.” said Jared Weisfeld, chief strategy officer at RXO. “While we continue to operate in a fluid environment, recent clarity on trade policies is enabling shippers to strategically plan in preparation for retail peak season.”

The latest update indicates a sustained year-over-year increase in truckload rates from Q2 2024 to Q2 2025. However, the rate of this growth decelerated when compared to Q1 2025, marking the third consecutive quarter of deceleration. Highlights from the report include:

• Spot rates increased 6.5% year-over-year in Q2 2025, slightly less than the 9.1% reading in Q1 2025 and the 11.6% reading Q4 2024.

• Seasonal shipping events including produce season, Memorial Day, CVSA International Roadcheck and Independence Day created short-term volatility, but truckload spot rates receded to their baseline in the immediate aftermath.

• Looking ahead, peak season build-up could drive incremental spot market volatility in Q3 2025.

• Truckload market performance will hinge on shipper demand, which has remained muted.

“We were most interested to see whether typical seasonality during the busier summer months would drive sustained upward momentum in spot rates. Ultimately, that didn’t materialize, and the market remained stable,” said Corey Klujsza, vice president of pricing and procurement at RXO. “With the third consecutive quarter of deceleration in year-over-year spot rate growth, it raises a new question: will rates continue on their upward trajectory? We think so, even if the third quarter ends lower than the second. Carriers remain under tremendous cost pressure from prolonged low rates, making the capacity environment far more susceptible to changes in demand.”

The Curve exemplifies RXO’s commitment to providing market-based, data-driven insights that help shippers and carriers navigate the dynamic truckload market.