Oversupply risk heightens as global oil market takes on additional OPEC+ barrels – Rystad Energy market note

In 4Q25, global liquids balances are expected to show a surplus of around 2.2 million bpd, compared to a near balance in 3Q25. OPEC+ is set to add roughly 1 million bpd of production quarter over quarter in 4Q25, while US supply continues modest growth of around 120,000 bpd despite signs of shale plateauing. Guyana, Argentina and Canada are also contributing incrementally, lifting non-OPEC+ supply growth by nearly 450,000 bpd. On the demand side, 4Q25 consumption will decline quarter over quarter by 230,000 bpd, led by seasonally weaker transport fuel demand in OECD markets.  

This longer crude oil balance is set to translate into inventory builds over the coming months, leaving the market far less exposed to disruption risk. In 4Q25, global crude oil supply is projected to outpace demand by more than 2.5 million bpd, while total liquids show a surplus of around 2.2 million bpd. This represents a sharp shift from 3Q25, when balances were much tighter, at just –230,000 bpd for crude and +270,000 bpd for liquids. 

Looking into 2026, balances remain oversupplied. Annual liquids supply growth is projected at around 2.5 million bpd, led by OPEC+ barrels returning to the market and steady growth from Brazil, Canada, and Guyana. Demand growth is expected to stay under 1 million bpd, reflecting weaker macroeconomic momentum in OECD countries and a leveling-off of post-pandemic air travel recovery. This implies a global surplus of over 2 million bpd for the year, more concentrated in the first half. 

Downside price risks are shifting toward $50 per barrel or lower if inventories continue to build through the first half of the year. WTI faces additional headwinds from domestic production resilience and potential Cushing stock builds, leaving it vulnerable to slipping below $50. However, WTI differentials to ICE Brent may be supported by the tight US midcontinent crude oil balance owing to Canada’s commissioning of the Trans Mountain pipeline in 2024. This has redirected around 0.5 million bpd of Canadian exports to other regions leaving the US midcontinent scrambling for domestic supplies.