Oil pares gain with stimulus concerns offsetting China data

Oil eased off of session highs as an impasse in U.S. stimulus talks countered data from China showing robust crude imports.

Futures in New York rose as much as 2.6% on Tuesday before weakening slightly. The S&P 500 Index fell as much as 0.5% with another round of fiscal stimulus remaining deadlocked. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose as much as 0.5%, reducing the appeal for commodities priced in the currency.

Yet, Chinese crude imports climbed 2.1% month-on-month in September, according to the General Administration of Customs. The nation also reported robust vehicle sales, signaling continued demand for oil products.

“The market is bouncing back, but the rally is being currently mitigated by dollar strength,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodities strategy at BNP Paribas. Meanwhile, “fiscal uncertainty in the U.S., with the possibility of a fourth round of stimulus taking place only after election, is a concern for the economic outlook, and thus for oil demand.”

Crude futures in New York have remained range-bound so far this month. Countries across Europe widened curbs to try to regain a grip on the coronavirus pandemic, while the International Monetary Fund warned that the world economy still faces an uneven recovery until the virus is tamed. Oil demand will take years to recover and will peak at a lower level, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday. After an unprecedented 8% drop this year, global oil consumption will return to pre-crisis levels in 2023, the agency said.

Meanwhile, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries downgraded supply forecasts as its rival producers in the U.S. weather the impact of low prices. The crude-producer group and its allies are due to hold a monitoring meeting on Monday to consider whether unprecedented output cuts they’ve made this year are managing to keep the global market in balance.

OPEC+ producers are still planning to ease output cuts by 2 million barrels a day in January, United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said at the Energy Intelligence Forum.