Oil Climbs With Dual Storms Ripping Through the Gulf of Mexico

Oil rose as two storms heading for the U.S. Gulf Coast spurred offshore operators to curtail production.

Futures climbed as much as 1.3% in New York on Monday. Almost 58% of crude output, or more than 1 million barrels a day, in the Gulf of Mexico was closed as of midday Sunday. The storms Marco and Laura—the latter of which is forecast to become a hurricane—are coming from different directions and have the potential to cause billions of dollars in damage. Multiple refineries, including the massive Motiva Enterprises Llc. Port Arthur plant, are considering shutting ahead of the storm, according to people familiar.

The market is “relatively subdued” as traders try to “balance the production shutdowns with the potential for demand destruction,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group. “We’re kind of biding our time right now,” awaiting developments on the path of the storms.

Stronger equities markets are also lifting crude futures amid signs that the Trump administration may fast-track vaccines and treatments for coronavirus. President Donald Trump’s team was also said to be privately seeking to reassure American companies that they can still do business with the WeChat messaging app in China, easing concerns over potential trade tensions between the two countries.

Still the storms are set to affect global oil flows. If U.S. refineries are forced to shut, it could boost gasoline flows from Europe to the U.S. East Coast, depending on how badly plants are hit and whether Colonial Pipeline Co.’s conduit is affected, according to Steve Sawyer, director of refining at energy consultant FGE.

U.S. benchmark crude futures have risen this month amid a streak of declines in U.S. crude stockpiles and gasoline inventories. But holding prices back from a breakout rally, the pandemic is still raging across the world, threatening a sustained rebound in consumption. As futures in New York stabilize above $40 a barrel, explorers in the world’s largest shale patch are returning to production, with Permian Basin drillers last week posting the biggest rig hike this year.

Despite the threat from back-to-back storms, “signs of rising cases in Europe and Asia are still weighing on global demand expectations,” TD Securities commodity strategists including Bart Melek said in a note. “Weak refinery runs, exports and distillate demand continue to put a damper on the recovery.”

With the storms disrupting production as they near the U.S. Gulf, premiums for crudes in the region against Nymex futures have jumped. Mars Blend rose 40 cents on Monday to $2.00 a barrel over Nymex WTI futures, its highest premium since May, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. WTI crude in Houston rose to its strongest level since July.