New forecast projects continued growth of truck freight

Today, the American Trucking Associations released new projections showing truck tonnage will grow to 14.2 billion tons by the year 2034, securing the industry’s position as the dominant mover of goods in the United States.

“In this edition of Forecast, you will see that the trucking industry continues to dominate the freight transportation industry in terms of both tonnage and revenue, comprising 72.2% of tonnage and 79.2% of revenue in 2022,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “That market share will continue to hold over the next decade, as the country will still rely on trucking to move the vast majority of freight.”

Among the key findings in ATA Freight Transportation Forecast 2023 to 2034 are:

• Overall truck tonnage will grow from an estimated 11.3 billion tons this year to 14.2 billion tons in 2034, this represents 72.4% of the freight tonnage in 2023 and 72.6% of tonnage at the end of the forecast period.
• Trucking’s revenues will grow from $1.01 trillion in 2023 to $1.51 trillion in 2034, which will account for 78.8% of the freight market.
• In other modes:
• As coal and bulk petroleum shipments wane over time, rail carload tonnage will fall from 11% of total freight to 10.1% by 2034.
• Rail intermodal revenues will grow from $21.7 billion in 2023 to $35.2 billion in 2034.
• Air cargo tonnage will grow from 17.6 million tons this year to 23.7 million tons in 2034.
• Pipelines will see their share of freight tonnage grow from 9.8% in 2023 to 10.4% in 2034

“Knowing where our industry and economy are headed is critical for decision makers,” said ATA President and CEO Chris Spear. “This Freight Forecast should be top of mind for policymakers in Washington, Sacramento and wherever decisions are being made that affect trucking.”