Maersk eyes 4% market growth in 2025, uncertainty over tariffs and Red Sea

Maersk on Thursday said it expects to grow its business to track an expected 4% growth in global container shipping this year, even as profits are set to decline and U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats create uncertainty.

Geopolitical developments including Trump's threats to impose tariffs on the top U.S. trading partners and access to the Red Sea shipping route will impact Maersk's revenues.

The shipping giant, viewed as a barometer of world trade, had seen no changes in cargo flows due to the threats of tariffs so far, said CEO Vincent Clerc.

"At the end of the day, it's not tariffs that matter for volumes, it's consumption," Clerc told journalists in Copenhagen after posting forecast-beating quarterly earnings and resuming share buybacks, sending Maersk's share price up as much as 10%.

"If a person wants to buy a television, then we're going to move it but if those tariffs translate into inflation, and people are buying fewer televisions, then there's fewer televisions for us to move, and then there's an impact."

Maersk expects an underlying EBITDA result of between $6 billion and $9 billion this year, compared with the $12.1 billion achieved last year and the $7.4 billion predicted by analysts.

It said the wide forecast range hinged on the situation in the Red Sea, avoided by Maersk for over a year due to attacks by militants that forced vessels travelling between Europe and Asia took the longer route around Africa.

"I don't think we are close to making a change and going back into the Red Sea because there is so much uncertainty about the situation in the Middle East," Clerc said.

Maersk and rivals have benefited from longer sailing times and soaring freight rates as ships are rerouted around Africa as Houthi militants have kept up attacks on Red Sea vessels in what they say is in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.

"With negotiations for phase 2 of a (Gaza) ceasefire already under way, we see a meaningful risk of the group coming in at the lower end," Bernstein analysts said in a research note.

Maersk, whose customers include Walmart, Target, Asos and Nike, saw global container market volume growth of 6% last year and expects 4% growth in 2025.

The Danish company's underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose to $3.60 billion in the fourth quarter from a year-ago $839 million, beating a $3.0 billion forecast by analysts in an LSEG poll.