Jet shortages, supply chain stress to dominate aviation summit

Aviation leaders gathering in the UK next week have a shot at addressing some of the lingering issues hanging over the industry — from plane production woes at Boeing Co. and Airbus SE that are causing huge order backlogs, to aging fleets that are making it increasingly hard to cut flight emissions.

The Farnborough International Airshow, which kicks off July 22, is typically a platform for planemakers to rack up multibillion-dollar deals. But two years on from the pandemic, there’s mounting frustration among airline executives over lengthy waits for new jets, supply chain breakdowns and a lack of spare parts.

Bloomberg took a look at some of these issues through a series of charts, analyzing data from aviation analytics firm Cirium and aviation data, intelligence and advisory company IBA.

Constraints on the factory floor are more than a headache for two major planemakers and their airline customers. The lack of capacity could impact passengers too, translating into fewer flights and routes, and higher fares. People are also flying on older planes for longer.

At the same time, Airbus and Boeing continue to take on new orders as some carriers bet big on air travel demand into the next decade, meaning order books are ballooning even as production remains sluggish.

The shortage of new and more efficient jets, which burn less fuel, is also seriously limiting the aviation industry’s ability to cut emissions and reach net zero by 2050. Retirement of planes this year lags previous years as the unexpected grounding of jets forces carriers to extend the life of older, more fuel-hungry aircraft as a contingency.

With newer planes not coming into service as expected, the path toward reducing carbon emissions has slowed. In 2024, global aviation industry CO2 emissions are expected to exceed 2019 levels.

“These aircraft can’t go on forever, emitting 15% to 20% more CO2 than their planned replacements,” Rob Morris, the global head of consultancy at Cirium Ascend, said. “At some point the deck of cards comes crashing down.” 

Clean and Dirty

According to the International Energy Agency, aviation isn’t reducing emissions fast enough to meet its mid-century goal of carbon neutrality, and the worst-performing airlines run the risk of fines or limits on their operations. Data from IBA show that those doing the best job are almost all low-cost carriers, led by Wizz Air Holdings Plc. 

That’s because budget airlines tend to be obsessive about cutting weight and stuffing planes with seats — practices that reduce fuel burn per passenger. Many such airlines have actually reduced per-seat per-mile emissions from 2019 levels.

On the flip side, some airlines are facing an increase in per-seat per-mile CO2 emissions.

SkyWest Inc. is No. 1 atop the biggest emitters among airlines with at least 100 aircraft in 2024. It leads a cohort of mainly regional carriers that typically operate flights on behalf of major airlines using smaller planes, and often with less-dense seating, which raises their carbon footprint impact.

Budget carriers also dominate the list of airlines with newest jets, given their preference to buy off the production line and in bulk to supercharge growth and maximize fuel efficiency.

Young at Heart

Among carrier groups with at least 100 in-service passenger aircraft, India’s IndiGo has the youngest fleet. Singapore Airlines Ltd. stands out among its legacy peers of having a fleet of around 200 mostly young, widebody jets.

Topping the oldest fleet rankings meanwhile is US leisure carrier Allegiant Air, which has grown in scale by acquiring second-hand jets. Some of the world’s best-known airlines — including United Airlines Holdings Inc. and American Airlines Group Inc. — have the oldest fleets considering they keep many of their jets from delivery until it’s time to retire them some two decades later.

When it comes to which airlines are utilizing their planes the most, it’s mainly those flying ultra-long haul distances, pretty much around the clock.

Turkish Airlines topped the list of carriers that are maximizing the amount of time their widebody planes flew in June, although few single flights would be able to out-do the world’s longest, operated by Singapore Air. 

That trip lasts for 19 hours, from Singapore to Newark Airport in New Jersey in the US, where the plane spends just 3 1/2-hours on the tarmac before making the return journey home. 

Pegasus Airlines comes out on top in terms of average hours flown by its narrowbody jet fleet last month.