Intermodal projected to show growth in April

April intermodal volume was expected to expand 3.1 percent relative to its pre-Pandemic baseline, according to the Intermodal Association of North America’s Intermodal Volume Index (IVI). This newly introduced measure of industry activity provides a ‘most likely’ estimate of what is happening in intermodal now. The projected IVI for April is 103.1, a decline from March but still above the 2017-2019 average set to 100.

Three consecutive months above the baseline suggest the same in June, rounding out a full second quarter of growth if current economic conditions hold. The IVI anticipates the May increase at 106.2. The March result of 104.0 (the most recent month for which ETSO numbers are available) was up 2.3 percent year-over-year.

"The April IVI is on par with what we would expect as later spring volumes pick up,” said Andrew Sibold, IANA’s Director of Economics. “We are excited to unveil this monthly 'pulse check' on the health of North American intermodal freight which, in a single number, indicates whether the market is expanding, flat or contracting relative to its underlying trend.”

The Index applies X-13ARIMA-SEATS (the same seasonal adjustment engine used by the Census Bureau) to weekly ETSO rail loadings as well as other modal data sources. Its comprehensive scope makes IANA the authority for industry information. In the coming months, the Association will augment its volume projection capabilities, allowing for forecasting up to six months out.