Import cargo volume to see year-over-year gain again in June, then remain below 2025 levels into fall

Import volumes at major U.S. container ports are expected to see a skewed year-over-year bump again this month in anticipation of more tariffs and rising fuel prices but then remain below last year’s levels into the fall, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“We expect to see a year-over-year increase this month that’s partly driven by retailers bringing in merchandise early because of higher costs from tariffs or fuel prices that could come starting in August,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Nonetheless, the ongoing trend is for lower imports as the conflict in Iran continues to cause higher inflation and economic uncertainty.”
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said the year-over-year gain expected in June is partly because of the comparison against import levels that dropped sharply after President Donald Trump announced “Liberation Day” tariffs in April 2025. But higher shipping costs and worries about additional tariffs imposed after those tariffs were ruled illegal by the Supreme Court are also a concern.

“We have increased our outlook for June cargo volume as retailers bring forward their peak season cargo to mitigate increasing shipping costs as carriers pass along the sharply rising cost of fuel and because of concerns about punitive replacement tariffs,” Hackett said. “The current import surge will likely last into July, with an early peak season that resembles the more recent pattern of raised volume rather than a sharp peak. After this, we expect a weakening in import volume as consumer uncertainty remains high and the impact of increasing inflation takes its toll.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.05 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in April, although the Port of New York and New Jersey has not yet reported its numbers. That was down 5.1% from March and down 7.3% year over year.

Ports have not yet reported May numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.14 million TEU, up 9.7% from a year earlier, when imports were down sharply because of last year’s “Liberation Day” tariffs. June is forecast at 2.25 million TEU, up 14.3%, with the increase also because of low imports a year earlier. July is forecast at 2.19 million TEU, down 8.4% year over year; August at 2.12 million TEU, down 8.6%; and September at 2.06 million TEU, down 2.2%. October is forecast at 2.08 million TEU, up 0.1%.

Those numbers would bring the first half of 2026 to 12.6 million TEU, up 0.6% from the same period in 2025 thanks, in part, to the May-June increases.