IBA forecasts 15% growth in African air travel for 2025

IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and consultancy company, forecasts a significant 15% year-on-year rise in passenger traffic across Africa in 2025, with total traveller numbers expected to reach 113 million.

According to IBA’s data, African airlines’ passenger traffic is set to grow 15% YoY in 2025, and is projected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.2% to 2030, outpacing Africa’s forecast growth CAGR of 4.3% over the same period.

The findings, published in IBA’s latest Africa Aviation Market Update, reveal a continent in the midst of a strong post-pandemic recovery, supported by expanding airline capacity, increased international passenger demand, and sustained fleet investment.

Data from IBA Insight suggests robust capacity growth across the continent, with flight schedules indicating a 7.1% year-on-year Available Seat Kilometres (ASKs) increase in Q3 2025, supported by growth across domestic (+4%) and intra-African (+6%) routes. Although this trails Asia-Pacific (+21%) and Latin America (+12%), Africa’s steady expansion reflects improving connectivity and network resilience.

African airlines have placed orders for 23 new aircraft so far in 2025, including six Airbus A350s for EGYPTAIR and 17 ATRs for Air Algérie and AfriJet. Though order activity has moderated from 2023 highs, it remains above the 2015–2022 average, suggesting healthy, sustained fleet renewal momentum.

IBA’s fleet data indicates around 200 aircraft are on order, led by Ethiopian Airlines (58), Air Algérie (24)and Air Peace (23). Boeing retains the largest market share of the African orderbook at 41%, followed by Airbus (35%), ATR (11%), and Embraer (7%).

The region’s active commercial fleet stands at 1,490 aircraft, with narrowbodies accounting for 44%. Aircraft in storage have fallen to 29% of the total, nearly returning to pre-pandemic levels.

While IBA’s data reflects the strong growth in Africa’s macro-economic environment, airlines continue to face cost pressures. The Ethiopian Birr’s 30% depreciation against the US dollar has increased operating costs for the continent’s largest carrier, potentially leading to fare adjustments.

Airlines across Africa are forecast to achieve an average 3.9% EBIT margin in 2025, equivalent to USD 0.6 billion in operating profit. Stronger carriers such as Ethiopian Airlines and Airlink are expected to maintain robust performance, while smaller operators continue to face higher structural costs and restricted access to financing.

Note: LCU = local currency units

IBA’s analysis highlights that Africa’s aviation sector is poised for long-term growth, supported by growing connectivity, fleet renewal, increasing demand and gradual regulatory liberalisation. Although high costs and financing constraints persist, the long-term demand outlook for the region’s airlines remains firmly positive.