How will the wet season affect capesize demand from West Africa?

In our recent report on how bauxite exports from Guinea are driving capesize demand, Signal explored how surging demand for bauxite from China has led to the aluminium ore overtaking coal as the second-largest capesize-shipped product. This report provides an update and gives a short-term outlook on how the wet season on Africa’s West coast may dampen vessel demand.

Current performance of bauxite exports

As reported in our last insight on the topic, bauxite exports from Guinea have performed remarkably well so far in 2025, up 37% from last year and 56% from 2023. Chinese demand for the ore to feed its growing aluminium need has been the strongest driver, and over the past decade, Chinese involvement in the country’s bauxite sector has continued to evolve and grow. This took a major step in the early 2020s with major rail and port developments. This has helped bauxite to overtake coal as the second-largest driver of capesize demand globally and has established West Africa as one of the key regions for capes.

Seasonality impacts on Capesize vessel demand

Given the geographical location of Guinea, near the equator and the Atlantic Ocean, the country experiences a West African Monsoon season typically between May and October. This period of intense rainfall impacts the entire supply chain, from mine performance to road and rail to port infrastructure.

This is seen in the steady drop-off in bauxite exports during these months from the chart above, with July and August often showing the lowest figures. Therefore, Q3 has historically experienced the lowest export volumes, falling by between 12% and 17% from 2022 to 2024. A similar drop in 2025 Q3 vs Q2 could see a fall of around 7Mt of bauxite being exported from Guinea.

However, 2023 and 2024 were particularly wet, with 2024 seeing notable flooding across many West African countries. The drop off in exports in the third quarter of 2023 and 2024 was 14% and 17% respectively, higher than the 12% drop seen in 2022 Q3. The overall expectation for rainfall in Guinea during the 2025 monsoon season is much closer to an average, with coastal regions expecting lower than average rainfall, given the La Nina weather system. However, inland regions are expecting average-to-above-average rainfall over this period, which is more likely to affect mine performance and the infrastructure that links mines to ports. This squeeze on supply also helps to boost bauxite CIF China prices, so miners that can handle the poorer mining conditions are well-positioned from a profitability standpoint.