How El Niño 2026 could reshape global shipping operations

Five major shipping corridors face distinct operational impacts through the 2026 El Niño season, according to analysis published by Sofar Ocean.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared El Niño conditions in June 2026, and its Climate Prediction Center forecasts the event could build to moderate to strong intensity by this fall.

The Eastern Pacific is forecast to see more tropical storms on the Mexico–Central America trade. The Indian Ocean faces monsoon disruption with a weaker than normal monsoon in western India while East Africa is likely to see intensified rain and flooding. Australia and Indonesia are likely to run drier, hitting some dry bulk exports. The Atlantic is the one basin where conditions ease, as increased vertical wind shear suppresses hurricane formation. With increased risk of drought and low water levels, the Panama Canal has the potential to be a global disruptor.

“Each corridor brings a different operational challenge. Panama is the chokepoint most likely to force rerouting at scale, and 2023–24 showed how quickly that can spill out beyond Cristobal and Balboa,” said Jessica Topal, Routing Specialist at Sofar Ocean.

What Panama showed last time

The 2023–24 Panama drought is the recent precedent for how a regional disruption becomes a global challenge. Daily transits fell from 36 to 18 between July 2023 and February 2024. Total transits were down 29% in fiscal 2024 and LNG carrier transits fell 66%, according to Panama Canal Authority figures. Full capacity didn't return until August 2024.

When canal slots tightened, cargoes and port calls were displaced across the wider network — turning a local water constraint into a multi-basin routing problem. A similar drought this season would increase freight rates, ton-miles, and claims risk well beyond Central America.

Voyage plans age faster

In a strong ENSO season, ETA confidence falls, static speed instructions quickly become obsolete, and bunker burn variance widens. These conditions have historically increased the odds of missed laycans and speed/consumption disputes.

Sofar's recommended cadence: Corridor risk reviews 30 days out, voyage-specific forecast reviews 7 days before departure, and a final check on forecast spread and ETA confidence 24 hours before sailing. Once underway, vessels should be monitored against agreed thresholds for wind, waves, route deviation, and fuel consumption. "In an El Niño year, conditions move faster than a weekly update can keep up with," said Topal.

"Forecast models work with incomplete information," said Dr Sarah Ruth Merrigan, Science Engagement Lead at Sofar Ocean. "Open-ocean wave and sea-state observations are sparse, so models estimate. In a strong El Niño year, with anomalously warm sea surface temperatures and few historical analogues, that estimation error compounds."

Merrigan continued, “We can observe these changes in real-time through our Spotter network, and these real-time observations feed directly into our forecast, allowing us to better capture these rapidly evolving and volatile conditions.”

Wayfinder

Used by shipowners including Dorian LPG, NYK and MOL, Sofar Ocean's Wayfinder dynamic voyage optimization platform draws on the company's Spotter network - the world's largest privately-owned network of ocean sensors - which generates more than 1.5 million ocean observations each day to produce marine weather forecasts up to 50% more accurate than traditional models.