Global Shipping Outlook is stable in 2025

Fitch Ratings-London-12 December 2024: Fitch Ratings has changed its outlook for global container shipping to ‘stable’ from ‘deteriorating’, as it expects stable to improving performance in many sub-sectors, including tankers and bulk, partially offset by downward trajectory of container shipping.

Shipping remains one of the most exposed sectors to geopolitical conflicts due to several choke points on key trade routes, its vital role in global supply chains and its limited ability to adjust effective capacity in the short term. Global shipping benefitted in 2024 from a continuation of existing conflicts (e.g. tankers from the Ukraine war) and emergence of new situations (Red Sea disruption for container shipping). The reduction of geopolitical risks may normalise elevated freight rates, although this is likely to take some time after any dispute resolution.

Trade policy changes, particularly likely following the US 2024 election results, present a visible risk in 2025 that could reduce demand for shipping companies. ‘Just in case’ supply chain planning could still lead to a short-term spike in demand. Re-routing trade lanes may mitigate this demand risk.

We forecast tankers and dry bulk to remain stable, with the former the most likely to perform well. Container shipping is on track to reach an oversupply situation in 2025 with new vessel deliveries and this is likely to keep reducing freight rates.

Increasing visibility on emissions regulations continues to pose medium- to long-term risk through higher compliance costs and requiring investment in both operating assets and supporting infrastructure.

‘Global Shipping Outlook 2025’ is available at fitchratings.com or by clicking the link above.