FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index suffers brief drop in March as expected

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index for March fell as expected due to the unprecedented surge in diesel prices, dropping to a reading of -1.11 after hitting a four-year high of 10.2 in February. The fact that the index was only slightly negative despite such a huge hit from fuel costs highlights the strength of freight-related factors, especially rates. The positive contribution from freight rates alone offset most of the impact of soaring fuel costs. The outlook remains solidly favorable for carriers.

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, commented, “Carriers of all stripes are in store for a strong year from a rates perspective, but for much of the market, the recovery remains driven by the combination of very tight capacity and disruption. We are still skeptical that van freight will benefit much from volume growth, but the open deck sector is benefiting not only from very tight capacity but also from an ongoing surge in data center construction and a modest improvement in manufacturing output.”

Details of the March TCI are found in the May issue of FTR’s Trucking Update, published April 30. The May issue includes commentary on the impact of artificial intelligence on economic indicators beyond data center construction and consumer spending. The Trucking Update includes data and analysis on load volumes, the capacity environment, rates, and the economy.

The TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market. These conditions are: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. The individual metrics are combined into a single index indicating the industry’s overall health. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. Conversely, a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. Readings near zero are consistent with a neutral operating environment, and double-digit readings in either direction suggest significant operating changes are likely.