FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index for October reflects a more balanced market

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index for October improved to 0.49 from -2.47 in September, indicating improved conditions for carriers. Stronger utilization, lower capital costs, and less challenging freight rates were the main factors. FTR still expects the Trucking Conditions Index by the second quarter of next year to be consistently positive through at least 2026.

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, commented, “FTR’s outlook for the trucking market has not changed significantly since last month. Our forecast for freight volume next year is a bit weaker than it was previously, but we also have tightened our capacity assumption a bit based on preliminary government data regarding trucking employment. We still anticipate a modest increase in freight rates that might be just strong enough to disappoint both carriers and shippers. Tariffs on goods imported from Mexico and Canada announced by President-elect Trump could yield some volatility in truck freight demand, but volume likely would balance out over the course of 2025.”

Details of the October TCI are found in the December issue of FTR’s Trucking Update, published on November 26. Additional commentary includes a discussion regarding the impact and uncertainty of possible new tariff activity on the supply chain and business decision making. The Trucking Update includes data and analysis on load volumes, the capacity environment, rates, and the economy.

The TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market. These conditions are: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. The individual metrics are combined into a single index indicating the industry’s overall health. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. Conversely, a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. Readings near zero are consistent with a neutral operating environment, and double-digit readings in either direction suggest significant operating changes are likely.