FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index for December the strongest since May

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) for December rose to 14.45, improving from 10.0 in November. The December index reading is the highest since May 2021. The all-time high was 16.8 in April 2021.

Falling diesel prices and greater freight volume were principally responsible for the improvement, but strong freight rates remain the bedrock of robust market conditions for trucking companies. FTR expects conditions to remain positive for carriers through 2022 with gradual easing, but swings in fuel prices could maintain volatility.  

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, commented, “Government data concerning the labor market is starting to reinforce our analysis that overall driver capacity is not as tight as would be implied by stubbornly high freight rates. We still believe that the distribution of drivers in the market rather than the total number of drivers is the key issue. The market could remain stressed until capacity stops shifting from larger carriers to smaller ones. Potential catalysts for reversing this shift include continued sharp increases in fuel costs, a falloff in freight demand, or continued incremental gains in the driver supply among larger carriers, but none of those developments is a sure bet.”

Details of the December TCI are found in the February 2022 issue of FTR’s Trucking Update, published January 31. The February edition also includes an analysis of U.S. employment and what it means for the transportation industry.

Beyond the TCI and additional commentary, the Trucking Update includes data and analysis on load volumes, the capacity environment, rates, and the economy.

The TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market. These conditions are: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel price, and financing. The individual metrics are combined into a single index indicating the industry’s overall health. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. Conversely, a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. Readings near zero are consistent with a neutral operating environment, and double-digit readings in either direction suggest significant operating changes are likely.