FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index eased slightly in December to a 2.67 reading

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index for December declined to 2.67 from November’s 3.02 reading. While the decrease was minimal, the underlying factors changed substantially. Freight rates in December were considerably more unfavorable for carriers than they were in November, but the contributions from freight volume and capacity utilization were much improved. While FTR’s forecast for trucking conditions envisions near-term weakness due to fuel prices and freight rates, we expect the TCI to be consistently positive by Q2.

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, commented, “Preliminary data suggests that market conditions were tough for carriers in January, but we still forecast consistently favorable market conditions for carriers to begin soon. Freight rates have been sluggish, however, so the risk of a slower recovery than currently forecast is significant. Volatility in economic data due to tariff expectations and response from businesses and consumers injects further uncertainty into the outlook. Despite these concerns, we are confident in modestly stronger conditions for trucking companies at least by the second half of the year.”

Details of the December TCI are found in the February issue of FTR’s Trucking Update, published on January 31. Additional commentary in the February issue discusses the reshaping of energy policy under the new administration in Washington. The Trucking Update includes data and analysis on load volumes, the capacity environment, rates, and the economy.

The TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market. These conditions are: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. The individual metrics are combined into a single index indicating the industry’s overall health. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. Conversely, a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. Readings near zero are consistent with a neutral operating environment, and double-digit readings in either direction suggest significant operating changes are likely.