FTR’s TCI for October reflects some improvement for carriers within a difficult trucking market

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index in October improved to a reading of -6.07 from -8.97 in September. Falling diesel prices were primarily responsible for less harsh financial conditions in October, but the market remains difficult for trucking companies. The outlook is for gradual improvement, but TCI readings are forecast to remain negative through 2024.

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, commented, “The decline in diesel prices represented the only positive contribution to October’s TCI, although rates and cost of capital were less negative factors than they had been in September. As we have discussed frequently, the combination of stagnant freight volume and surprisingly resilient capacity is thwarting a near-term turnaround for the truckload sector. Our analysis suggests that market conditions for carriers will not start to recover until the second half of 2024 absent an acceleration in the current rate of capacity loss.”

Details of the October TCI are found in the December 2023 issue of FTR’s Trucking Update, published on November 30. The December edition includes additional commentary analyzing why payroll employment at truckload carriers remains high despite a sluggish freight environment. The Trucking Update includes data and analysis on load volumes, the capacity environment, rates, and the economy.

The TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market. These conditions are: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. The individual metrics are combined into a single index indicating the industry’s overall health. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. Conversely, a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. Readings near zero are consistent with a neutral operating environment, and double-digit readings in either direction suggest significant operating changes are likely.