FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index in July improved but was still negative

FTR Shippers Conditions Index for July, although still negative, improved to a reading of -2.0 from the previous -3.6 in June. While fuel costs were a headwind in July, freight dynamics were more favorable for shippers. Freight rates were the most favorable since October. The SCI outlook has weakened a bit but, for now, still looks close to neutral throughout most of 2026. However, a more negative outlook might be coming due to regulatory and enforcement changes.

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, commented, “As of today, we forecast very mildly unfavorable market conditions for shippers over the next couple of years, but trucking capacity is poised to tighten significantly. A preliminary revision of payroll jobs data in trucking already implies a tighter supply of drivers than previously indicated, but the big development is the just-announced crackdown on foreign nationals holding commercial driver’s licenses along with the ongoing scrutiny over English language skills. Record insurance premium costs add to the pressure. Also, the new 25% tariff on heavy trucks could further reduce trucking companies’ ability to grow whenever freight demand warrants. A weak freight market might keep these pressures at bay for a while, but shippers could face a much hotter market once volume recovers.”

The September FTR’s Shippers Update, published September 5, also discusses what impact a transcontinental rail merger might have on diversion of truck freight to rail and revisits the potential for English language proficiency (ELP) and related issues to affect capacity in the wake of an August crash in Florida that has ratcheted up scrutiny.

The Shippers Conditions Index tracks the changes representing four major conditions in the U.S. full-load freight market. These conditions are freight demand, freight rates, fleet capacity, and fuel price. The individual metrics are combined into a single index that tracks the market conditions that influence the shippers’ freight transport environment. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. A negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. The index summarizes the industry’s health at a glance.