FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index for March plunged to -18.9

FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index for March plummeted to -18.9, reflecting, as expected, exceptionally harsh market conditions driven primarily by the sharp rise in fuel costs. Capacity utilization and freight rates also were negative factors as they have been all year. The February index reading of -11.9 had indicated the toughest market for shippers in nearly four years. The SCI outlook is negative but less than in March.

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, commented, “Only once in the SCI data, which dates to 2000, did the index suggest more unfavorable overall conditions for shippers than in March. Exactly four years earlier, the fuel component was not quite as negative, but freight rates and utilization were notably more unfavorable. However, in March 2022, rates and utilization were beginning to move in a favorable direction while today those factors are rising challenges. We expect market conditions to stabilize over the next quarter or so, but they don’t look favorable for shippers over the two-year forecast horizon.”

The May FTR’s Shippers Update, published on May 7, includes commentary on the impact of artificial intelligence on economic indicators beyond data center construction and consumer spending.

The Shippers Conditions Index tracks the changes representing four major conditions in the U.S. full-load freight market. These conditions are freight demand, freight rates, fleet capacity, and fuel price. The individual metrics are combined into a single index that tracks the market conditions that influence the shippers’ freight transport environment. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. A negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. The index summarizes the industry’s health at a glance.

The 2026 FTR Transportation Conference will be held from August 31-September 3 in Indianapolis, including full days on September 1 and 2 dedicated to forecasts and discussions concerning the truck freight and rail freight markets.