FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index could fall to a record low

FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) was already forecast in the near-term to fall to its lowest level in four years, but surging fuel costs on top of the tightening freight environment potentially sets the stage for the most unfavorable market conditions ever for shippers. However, to achieve that milestone, sharply higher fuel costs also would have to reduce capacity and raise freight rates in the near term – not just spike fuel surcharges.

FTR’s current forecast, which was locked in before military strikes on Iran, anticipated that the SCI for February would be weaker than January’s -5.0 reading, which indicated the toughest overall conditions for shippers since May 2022.

The SCI reading of -23.1 in March 2022 is the lowest ever, driven by a still-tough truck freight market and, especially, what was – at least at the time – an unprecedented surge in diesel prices of $1.15 a gallon over two weeks. The surge of more than 96 cents during the first week of March 2026 far surpasses the first week of the March 2022 surge, but obviously the performance of prices in the coming weeks is unknown.

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, commented, “We wanted to highlight the possibility that the SCI soon could indicate the toughest overall conditions ever for shippers, though the freight components of the index are not yet as tough as they were in early 2022. However, the freight market then had started to cool from 2021’s extreme situation while today’s freight market – especially in trucking – is tightening. If the dramatic rise in diesel prices were to sideline even more capacity, the SCI quite plausibly could become even more unfavorable than it was in early 2022.”

The March FTR’s Shippers Update, published on March 6, includes commentary covering the continuing signs of a tightening truck freight market.

The Shippers Conditions Index tracks the changes representing four major conditions in the U.S. full-load freight market. These conditions are freight demand, freight rates, fleet capacity, and fuel price. The individual metrics are combined into a single index that tracks the market conditions that influence the shippers’ freight transport environment. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. A negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. The index summarizes the industry’s health at a glance.