FTR reports U.S. trailer net orders up strongly Y/Y in January at 23,966 units

U.S. trailer net orders in January decreased by 2% month-over-month (m/m) but rose by 81% year-over-year (y/y), reaching 23,966 units. January marks the third consecutive month of positive y/y growth. Total trailer net orders for the 2025 order season (September 2024-January 2025) are down 21% y/y at 98,926 units – an average of 19,785 units per month – despite the first month of 2025 showing a healthy level of orders.

Total trailer production increased by 2% m/m in January to 12,042 units. However, production was down 35% y/y – 46% below the seven-year January average – and was still the second lowest monthly output since 2010. With total trailer net orders significantly outpacing production, backlogs increased by 12,210 units, pushing the backlog/build ratio up to 9.7 months, which is the highest since February 2023. While this higher ratio is largely attributed to exceptionally low production levels, it also suggests easing pressure on OEMs to further scale back production in the near term.

Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, commented, “Many fleets continue to prioritize purchasing power units over trailers – a trend unlikely to reverse given the approaching implementation of EPA’s 2027 NOx regulations on trucks. During the 2025 order season so far, North American Class 8 net orders are up 4% y/y while U.S. trailer net orders are down 21%. Trailer OEMs have scaled back production, and prolonged cuts are possible if demand remains weak.

“Tariffs threaten further disruption. The 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports planned to take effect next month along with the 10% additional tariff already imposed on Chinese imports and the currently paused but still possible 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will raise material costs, squeeze margins, and strain supply chains. Tariffs will affect not only fully assembled trailers imported into the U.S. but also domestically produced trailers, which depend on imported materials and components. Expect market volatility as OEMs try to adapt to uncertainty over scope and timing of tariff impacts.”