Freight’s CO₂ problem: US states set for huge rise in emissions in 2025

New analysis from InTek Logistics has revealed the predicted increase in CO₂ emissions from truck freight across all US states, with increases projected to be as high as +48% from 2023.

Freight is a major contributor to emissions, and trucks are the fastest-growing source, significantly contributing to air pollution and emission intensity which is exacerbated by traffic congestion and idle vehicles.

392 Million Metric Tons of CO₂ was emitted in total by US truck freight in 2023, which is predicted to increase by 7% in 2025 to 420 MMT. This is the equivalent to over 6 million more cars on the road.

According to EPA data, transportation accounts for the largest portion (28%) of total U.S. GHG emissions, 80% of which is generated by both light and medium-heavy duty vehicles. As a result of this, shippers are under increasing pressure to reduce their environmental impact.

Alarmingly, all states in the ‘top ten most emission intensive list’ from 2023 are set to increase their CO₂ output in 2025 by up to 13%.

Texas is set to remain the most emission intensive freight destination with its current footprint of 51 MMT set to increase by 12% to 57 MMT in 2025.

California came in second place with a road freight footprint of 34 MMT in 2023, forecast to increase by 13% to 38 MMT in 2025.

US States with the Highest Truck Freight Emissions for 2025 (by Destination)

1. Texas – 57 MMT (12% increase)
2. California – 38 MMT (13% increase)
3. Illinois – 19 MMT (3% increase)
4. Florida – 18 MMT (1% increase)
5. Ohio – 16 MMT (8% increase)
6. Georgia – 14 MMT (6% increase)
7. Michigan – 14 MMT (9% increase)
8. Pennsylvania – 14 MMT (10% increase)
9. New York – 13 MMT (3% increase)
10. Minnesota –12 MMT (2% increase)

*Million Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide for 2025 by Freight Truck Destination

Rick LaGore, co-founder and CEO at InTek Logistics commented on the findings.

“The predicted increase in carbon emissions in Texas and across the rest of the US is alarming. Sustainability credentials are increasingly becoming an expectation rather than a nice to have, as regulations change, and consumer and stakeholder expectations evolve. It is therefore vital that shippers try to mitigate their impact on the environment.

Using intermodal transportation is a simple way to improve sustainability as it reduces the number of trucks on the road and offers far more fuel efficiency than trucking. Just one intermodal train can carry the equivalent of 280 trucks. This makes intermodal a powerhouse in reducing carbon footprints by 60% as compared to trucking.”