Freightos Weekly Update - Transpac ocean rates retreat from Nov. GRI, Asia-Europe holds

Key insights:

1. Trade & Tariffs. “With a Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs still pending, the administration is continuing to use the same authority to expand trade frameworks with South American partners and Switzerland, and to introduce targeted tariff exemptions aimed at cost-of-living concerns. These steps are part of the broader tariff strategy already in place, even as the underlying legal basis may be revised by the Court.”

2. Ocean Freight: GRIs vs. Market Reality “Carriers pushed through two rounds of GRIs in October and early November, but the underlying market hasn’t changed—capacity is growing and demand is soft. That’s why we’re now seeing transpacific rates slide sharply.”

3. Transpacific Declines. “Transpacific spot rates are falling fast, with West Coast and East Coast prices both down more than 20% this week. Most of the November gains have already been erased, with some carriers reconsidering plans for December GRIs.”

4. Asia–Europe Stability .“Asia–Europe and Mediterranean rates are holding steady, supported by aggressive blank sailings during tender season. Some carriers will test the market with more GRIs to push rates to the $3,000–$4,000/FEU range.”

5. US Air Cargo Operations. “The end of the US government shutdown allows air traffic control staffing to resume, which should gradually smooth recent disruptions to domestic cargo flows.”

6. De Minimis Impacts. “The US de minimis change earlier this year significantly reduced China–US e-commerce air volumes. With the EU now moving toward eliminating its de minimis threshold, we could see a similar impact on China–Europe lanes, though e-comm platforms are adjusting to the new rules, too.”

7. Air Freight Rates. “Some peak season momentum is showing up in air cargo. China–US rates rose 5% last week to $6.60/kg, with China–Europe and Transatlantic lanes also climbing.”

Ocean rates - Freightos Baltic Index:

• Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) fell 6% to $2,793/FEU.

• Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 6% to $3,734/FEU.

• Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 1% to $2,480/FEU.

• Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) were level at $2,827/FEU.

Air rates - Freightos Air index

• China - N. America weekly prices increased 5% to $6.60/kg.

• China - N. Europe weekly prices increased 2% to $4.01/kg.

• N. Europe - N. America weekly prices increased 6% to $2.31/kg.

Analysis

“The Trump administration – with the Supreme Court decision on the validity of its many IEEPA-based tariffs looming – announced additional tariff exemptions last week, focusing on agricultural products not produced in the US but also including beef, as the White House seeks ways to address cost of living concerns. The administration also announced frameworks for trade agreements with several South American countries and Switzerland.

Since October, container carriers have been contending with downward pressure on rates from both the seasonal lull in demand and growing capacity on the major East-West trades. Nonetheless, driven by significant steps to reduce capacity, they succeeded in pushing through mid-October GRIs that rescued rates from two-year lows, and pushed prices up again with November 1st rate increases.

But as we pass November’s midway point, transpacific rates have started to decrease sharply. Prices to the West Coast fell 6% last week, but daily rates so far this week have slipped more than 20% to about $2,100/FEU, erasing the November gains and, for now, back at about their mid-October GRI bump level.

East Coast daily prices have also fallen by more than 20% so far this week to about $3,000/FEU, back to pre-October GRI levels. Some carriers have December GRIs planned, but they may reconsider given this week’s sharp retreat.

Asia - Europe and Mediterranean prices meanwhile, are proving stickier, with rates about level last week and into this week at $2,480/FEU and $2,827/FEU respectively. This stability may reflect more aggressive blanked sailing campaigns for these lanes during the current tendering season, with some carriers announcing additional GRIs to push prices up to the $3k - $4k/FEU level soon or to start December.

In air cargo, the end of the US government shutdown has meant the restart of air operations that had been hampered by a drop in available air traffic controllers. The slowdown mostly impacted domestic cargo, and the ramp up is expected to take a few days.

The US’s cancellation of its de minimis exemptions this year was a significant driver of a sharp drop in air cargo volumes to the US – especially in the months immediately following the rule change – and a shift of Chinese e-commerce volumes to other markets, especially Europe. The European Union voted last week to close its de minimis exemption by 2028, but will explore ways to collect duties on low-value goods as early as next year.

The shift in volumes has been accompanied by a shift in capacity, which has kept the air cargo spot market relatively stable and in line with seasonal demand changes. Freightos Air Index China - US rates increased 5% last week to $6.60/kg, up from less than $5.00/kg in early October and at its highest sustained level this year as peak season demand grows. Last year, rates hit a high of $7.30/kg in mid-December.

China - Europe prices increased 2% to $4.01/kg last week, up from about the $3.50/kg level held pre-Golden Week. Transatlantic rates increased 6% to $2.31/kg last week, up from $1.70/kg in mid-October and to its highest since March. Rates for this lane were at $2.60/kg a year ago.”